Publicação
Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach
| Resumo: | The spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Salami, Donald |
| Outros Autores: | Capinha, César; Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira; Sousa, Carla Alexandra |
| Assunto: | Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| Ano: | 2020 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| _version_ | 1866808945616617472 |
|---|---|
| author | Salami, Donald |
| author2 | Capinha, César Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira Sousa, Carla Alexandra |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Salami, Donald Capinha, César Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira Sousa, Carla Alexandra |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Salami, Donald\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Capinha, César\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-0666-9755\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Sousa, Carla Alexandra\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Salami, Donald Capinha, César Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira Sousa, Carla Alexandra |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2020-09-30T09:15:10Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2020-09-30T09:15:10Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Salami, Donald Capinha, César Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira Sousa, Carla Alexandra |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2020-09-30T09:15:10Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2020-09-30T09:15:10Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44458 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Plos |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | The spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/bd2a6469-d8ce-4288-bdcd-19430882d6ef/download |
| id | ul_76090dbd648fc2b4eea9cf66b7cb8f7b |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44458 |
| instacron_str | ul |
| institution | Universidade de Lisboa |
| instname_str | Universidade de Lisboa |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ul |
| network_name_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.ulisboa.pt:10451/44458 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ul |
| person_str_mv | Salami, Donald Capinha, César Capinha, César https://www.ciencia-id.pt/7714-2A88-CDE3 7714-2A88-CDE3 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0666-9755 0000-0002-0666-9755 Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira Sousa, Carla Alexandra |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Plos |
| reponame_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ul |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ul |
| spelling | engPlospt_PTThe spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation.application/pdfpt_PTDengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approachSalami, DonaldPersonalCapinha, CésarDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/4c666e7e-4ba8-4a41-8064-d26b3b9fc0f8DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/4c666e7e-4ba8-4a41-8064-d26b3b9fc0f8CapinhaCésarCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt7714-2A88-CDE3ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-0666-9755Researcher IDhttps://www.researcherid.comK-6439-2017Researcher IDhttps://www.researcherid.comK-6439-2017Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com32867555000Martins, Maria do Rosário OliveiraSousa, Carla AlexandraHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboae-mailmailto:repositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptrepositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptISSNIsPartOf1932-6203DOIIsPartOf10.1371/journal.pone.02302742020-09-30T09:15:10Z20202020-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/44458http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessAir TravelDengueEuropeHumansRisk FactorsSeasonsDisease Outbreaks2618712 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/bd2a6469-d8ce-4288-bdcd-19430882d6ef/downloadPLOS ONE153e0230274 |
| spellingShingle | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach Salami, Donald Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| title | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| title_full | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| title_fullStr | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| title_short | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| title_sort | Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approach |
| topic | Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| topic_facet | Air Travel Dengue Europe Humans Risk Factors Seasons Disease Outbreaks |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44458 |
| visible | 1 |