Publicação
Does market volatility have predictive power for momentum returns? : evidence for the United Kingdom and Japan
| Resumo: | Recent studies for the United States indicate that market volatility predicts momentum returns. The objective of this paper is to analyze if this happens in two different countries, the United Kingdom and Japan. Using a simple time series regression not only with variables regarding market volatility and market state but also macroeconomic variables, the return dispersion, sentiment index, default risk, and expected future volatility it turns out that indeed, in the case of the UK, market volatility has predictive power for the momentum payoff after controlling for all other variables except one, the VSTOXX. This measure of expected volatility can subsume the power of market volatility but only in the positive market state. Regarding Japan, the volatility of the market only has predictive power when it is used in combination with macroeconomic variables. This situation maintains with the rest of the variables except for the default risk proxies that in a down market take away the predictive power of market volatility. The conclusions that were obtained from the study of each country differ. |
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| Autores principais: | Soares, Maria João dos Santos Almeida Luz |
| Assunto: | Market volatility Momentum payoff Predictability United Kingdom Japan Expected future volatility and default risk Volatilidade do mercado Lucro do momentum Prever Reino Unido Japão Volatilidade esperada futura e risco de falência |
| Ano: | 2022 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Resumo: | Recent studies for the United States indicate that market volatility predicts momentum returns. The objective of this paper is to analyze if this happens in two different countries, the United Kingdom and Japan. Using a simple time series regression not only with variables regarding market volatility and market state but also macroeconomic variables, the return dispersion, sentiment index, default risk, and expected future volatility it turns out that indeed, in the case of the UK, market volatility has predictive power for the momentum payoff after controlling for all other variables except one, the VSTOXX. This measure of expected volatility can subsume the power of market volatility but only in the positive market state. Regarding Japan, the volatility of the market only has predictive power when it is used in combination with macroeconomic variables. This situation maintains with the rest of the variables except for the default risk proxies that in a down market take away the predictive power of market volatility. The conclusions that were obtained from the study of each country differ. |
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