Autor(es): Lowe, Rachel ; Coelho, Caio A. S. ; Barcellos, Christovam ; Carvalho, Marilia Sa ; Catao, Rafael De Castro [UNESP] ; Coelho, Giovanini E. ; Ramalho, Walter Massa ; Bailey, Trevor C. ; Stephenson, David B. ; Rodo, Xavier
Data: 2018
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/158748
Origem: Oasisbr
Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-26T15:28:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2016-02-24
Seventh Framework Programme
Seventh Framework Programme EUPORIAS project
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
ICREA
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.
Inst Catala Ciencies Clima, Climate Dynam & Impacts Unit, Barcelona, Spain
Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Univ Estadual Paulista, Fac Ciencias & Tecnol, Presidente Prudente, Brazil
Minist Saude, Programa Nacl Controle Dengue, Coordenacao Geral, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
Univ Brasilia, Fac Ceilandia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter Climate Syst, Exeter, Devon, England
Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats, Barcelona, Spain
Univ Estadual Paulista, Fac Ciencias & Tecnol, Presidente Prudente, Brazil
Seventh Framework Programme: FP7-HEALTH.2011.2.3.3-2
Seventh Framework Programme: 282378
Seventh Framework Programme: FP7-ENV-2012-1
Seventh Framework Programme: 308378
Seventh Framework Programme EUPORIAS project: FP7-ENV.2012.6.1-1
Seventh Framework Programme EUPORIAS project: 308291
CNPq: 306863/2013-8
CNPq: 309692/2013-0
Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos: 01.13.0353-00
FAPERJ: E-23557/2014
FAPESP: BEPE 2014/17676-0
