Author(s):
Constantino, Hortêncio ; Fernandes, Paula Odete ; Teixeira, João Paulo
Date: 2016
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10198/13193
Origin: Biblioteca Digital da UPB
Subject(s): Mozambique; Artificial neural networks; Tourism demand; Forecasting; Modelling
Description
This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.