Autor(es):
Ayed, Yasmine ; Fortes, Patricia ; Afif, Rafat Al
Data: 2025
Identificador Persistente: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/199787
Origem: Repositório Institucional da UNL
Assunto(s): 100 % renewable electricity. nationally determined contribution (NDC); Algeria; Energy system modelling; Long-term low-emission development pathways (LT-LEDS); Morocco; Power system; Renewable energy sources; Tunisia; Energy (miscellaneous); SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy; SDG 13 - Climate Action; 100 % renewable electricity. nationally determined contribution (NDC); 100 % renewable electricity. nationally determined contribution (NDC); Algeria; Algeria; Energy system modelling; Energy system modelling; Long-term low-emission development pathways (LT-LEDS); Long-term low-emission development pathways (LT-LEDS); Morocco; Morocco; Power system; Power system; Renewable energy sources; Renewable energy sources; Tunisia; Tunisia; Energy (miscellaneous); Energy (miscellaneous); SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy; SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy; SDG 13 - Climate Action; SDG 13 - Climate Action
Descrição
The Maghreb's power-sector transition hinges on implementing the region's Nationally Determined Contributions and Low-Emission Development Strategies. Using The Integrated Market Allocation Energy Flow Optimization Model system (TIMES) energy-modelling framework, this study traces the evolution of the electricity systems of Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria from 2018 to 2050, assessing renewable energy targets, decarbonization feasibility, and the value of regional electricity trade. All three countries can exceed their renewable electricity targets: Onshore wind and solar photovoltaic jointly comprise over 90 % of the capacity, while Concentrated solar power plays a limited role. Flexible technology deployment is expected to result in a 25 % reduction in electricity prices in Morocco and Tunisia, and a 10 % reduction in Algeria, by 2030. Power sector decarbonization requires 130 GW of renewable energy capacity and 28 GW of storage, with a cumulative investment of €17 billion. Regional electricity trade enables cost savings, reducing Algeria's investment needs by 18 %, and allows Morocco and Tunisia to export up to 71 % and 54 % of their interconnector capacity. These results underscore the importance of regional cooperation and provide valuable insights for aligning national energy strategies with long-term climate objectives.
