Author(s):
Nic Lughadha, Eimear ; Bachman, Steven P. ; Leão, Tarciso C. C. ; Forest, Félix ; Halley, John M. ; Moat, Justin ; Acedo, Carmen ; Bacon, Karen L. ; Brewer, Ryan F. A. ; Gâteblé, Gildas ; Gonçalves, Susana C. ; Govaerts, Rafaël ; Hollingsworth, Peter M. ; Krisai‐Greilhuber, Irmgard ; Lirio, Elton J. ; Moore, Paloma G. P. ; Negrão, Raquel ; Onana, Jean Michel ; Rajaovelona, Landy R. ; Razanajatovo, Henintsoa ; Reich, Peter B. ; Richards, Sophie L. ; Rivers, Malin C. ; Cooper, Amanda ; Iganci, João ; Lewis, Gwilym P. ; Smidt, Eric C. ; Antonelli, Alexandre ; Mueller, Gregory M. ; Walker, Barnaby E.
Date: 2020
Persistent ID: https://hdl.handle.net/10316/101227
Origin: Estudo Geral - Universidade de Coimbra
Subject(s): automated conservation assessments; biodiversity loss; extinction debt; extinction risk; Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) Target 2; International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species; phylogenetic diversity (PD)
Description
Plant and fungal biodiversity underpin life on earth and merit careful stewardship in an increasingly uncertain environment. However, gaps and biases in documented extinction risks to plant and fungal species impede effective management. Formal extinction risk assessments help avoid extinctions, through engagement, financial, or legal mechanisms, but most plant and fungal species lack assessments. Available global assessments cover c. 30% of plant species (ThreatSearch). Red List coverage overrepresents woody perennials and useful plants, but underrepresents single-country endemics. Fungal assessments overrepresent well-known species and are too few to infer global status or trends. Proportions of assessed vascular plant species considered threatened vary between global assessment datasets: 37% (ThreatSearch), and 44% (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species). Our predictions, correcting for several quantifiable biases, suggest that 39% of all vascular plant species are threatened with extinction. However, other biases remain unquantified, and may affect our estimate. Preliminary trend data show plants moving toward extinction. Quantitative estimates based on plant extinction risk assessments may understate likely biodiversity loss: they do not fully capture the impacts of climate change, slow-acting threats, or clustering of extinction risk, which could amplify loss of evolutionary potential. The importance of extinction risk estimation to support existing and emerging conservation initiatives is likely to grow as threats to biodiversity intensify. This necessitates urgent and strategic expansion of efforts toward comprehensive and ongoing assessment of plant and fungal extinction risk.
Swedish Research Council, the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, and the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. Sfumato Foundation (funding the State of the World's Plants and Fungi project).
