Author(s): Capinha, César ; Ceia-Hasse, Ana ; de-Miguel, Sergio ; Vila-Viçosa, Carlos ; Porto, Miguel ; Jarić, Ivan ; Tiago, Patricia ; Fernández, Néstor ; Valdez, Jose ; McCallum, Ian ; Pereira, Henrique Miguel
Date: 2024
Persistent ID: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/65286
Origin: Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
Subject(s): Citizen science; Digital data; Ecological monitoring; Phenological niche; Seasonality prediction
The scarcity of long-term observational data has limited the use of statistical or machine-learning techniques for predicting intraannual ecological variation. However, time-stamped citizen-science observation records, supported by media data such as photographs, are increasingly available. In the present article, we present a novel framework based on the concept of relative phenological niche, using machine-learning algorithms to model observation records as a temporal sample of environmental conditions in which the represented ecological phenomenon occurs. Our approach accurately predicts the temporal dynamics of ecological events across large geographical scales and is robust to temporal bias in recording effort. These results highlight the vast potential of citizen-science observation data to predict ecological phenomena across space, including in near real time. The framework is also easily applicable for ecologists and practitioners already using machine-learning and statistics-based predictive approaches.
