Esta tese explora a intrincada dinâmica do risco de crédito na atividade agrícola. A investigação integra conhecimentos de vários ângulos, abrangendo factores como o ciclo vegetativo, actividades agrícolas específicas como a viticultura e olivicultura, a dimensão económica e considerações relacionadas com as alterações climáticas. Utilizando um conjunto abrangente de dados de empresas agrícolas, o estudo examina os preditores de falência, estima modelos de predição e relata o estado da arte, através de quatro artigos originais. Abordando as crescentes ameaças das alterações climáticas à produtividade agrícola, o primeiro artigo realiza uma revisão sistemática da literatura, identificando 39 artigos da Scopus e da Web of Science. Desta seleção, emergem três dimensões principais – (i) empréstimos agrícolas e risco de crédito, (ii) princípios verdes e sustentabilidade, e (iii) o contexto dos países em desenvolvimento. As conclusões sublinham a necessidade imperiosa de integrar as considerações climáticas nas políticas agrícolas e de crédito. São recomendadas estratégias proativas, abrangendo políticas de crédito personalizadas, melhor acesso ao crédito, capacitação financeira e combate às desigualdades sociais. O segundo artigo destaca o papel crucial do ciclo vegetativo na diferenciação entre empresas agrícolas saudáveis e falidas. Os preditores baseados na liquidez revelam-se eficazes para culturas não perenes, enquanto os preditores de atividade demonstram uma precisão superior para culturas perenes. O terceiro artigo estende o seu foco aos setores vitícola e olivícola de países mediterrânicos, apresentando 12 modelos adaptados para diferentes combinações de países e culturas. Os resultados sublinham a necessidade de modelos dedicados que tenham em conta as variações sectoriais e regionais para melhorar a precisão das previsões. O quarto artigo explora as dificuldades financeiras das pequenas empresas agrícolas, que constituem a maior parte do sector. Aproveitando uma amostra de 9.891 empresas, são estimados modelos de regressão logística. Notavelmente, a dimensão da empresa surge como um factor significativo, com as empresas mais pequenas a enfrentar maiores dificuldades financeiras. O estudo defende a inclusão do tamanho da empresa como covariável, enfatizando a sua relevância nas diferentes classes de dimensão. Esta análise multidimensional fornece um quadro abrangente para compreender e mitigar os desafios enfrentados pelas empresas agrícolas. A síntese destas diversas perspectivas oferece informações originais e valiosas para os decisores políticos, instituições financeiras e profissionais, abrindo caminho para uma melhor compreensão dos riscos financeiros, particularmente os riscos de crédito que estas empresas enfrentam num cenário de grande incerteza e desafios relacionados com a segurança alimentar e riscos climáticos.

A key debate of today’s international relations is whether developing powers will accept, reject or modify Western-centered rules, practices and norms. As they rise, developing powers devise strategies to advance interests, influence ongoing negotiations and promote more representative institutions. In spite of this plurality, most works tend to stick definitive criteria to these players’ conducts, opting for static classifications that range from revisionism to status quo. With that in mind, I study how developing powers interact with regimes’ normative and operational foundations, or their principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures. Focusing on Brazil, this thesis combines within-case and cross case research strategies to investigate how the concepts of concentric circles, responsibility while protecting and right to food respectively engage with the basic components of the regimes of climate change, peace and security and food security. These conceptual contributions are compared in view of three explanatory factors: regime structure, domestic assets and domestic decisionmaking procedures. Original data from in-depth interviews demonstrate that in the time frame 2011-2014 Brazil did not defend alternative views of world order and ordering or expected to harm current norms and principles. Instead, Brazil followed a nuanced approach in its multilateral engagements, expecting to promote specific changes in how regimes’ rules and decision-making procedures should function while keeping normative components in place. Rather than changes of regimes, Brazil therefore hoped for changes within regimes. The research also emphasizes that Brazil’s multilateral behavior is essentially individual and aiming to place the country as a reasonable negotiator in-between developing and developed states. I conclude presenting the concept of foreign policy inertia to explain how Brazil’s activism was possible even in a scenario of mounting economic crisis, lack of presidential diplomacy and reversal of certain domestic assets.

Cities face increasingly complex scenarios in the context of demographic growth, limited available land, municipal resources, and funds. Additionally, they face global challenges that make them especially vulnerable to climate change, water security issues, air pollution, and deteriorating public health and well-being. In recent years, the European Union played a central role in promoting the implementation of NbS in cities through the European Urban Agenda 2050 and the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation for 2021–2027, aiming to connect urban, regional and environmental policies and combine specified ecosystem-based approaches with social and economic dimensions. In this context, the Municipality of Penafiel signed the European Commission’s “Green City Accord” (GCA) encourages policymakers to develop greener and healthier cities. Most of the world's population lives in cities, so it is imperative that managers think and plan carefully, for city inhabitants have a higher quality of life. Through the GCA this objective can be reached while objectives, several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be addressed. The implementation of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in Urban Green Areas will help increase the resilience of these ecosystems and address climate change, by tackling urban problems such as heat waves, floods, air, water, and noise pollution, while addressing other societal challenges. A landscape approach is essential when planning ecosystem restoration, supported by NbS and ecosystem-based strategies. The NbS framework provides an opportunity to better integrate the agendas of climate action, disaster risk reduction and biodiversity conservation into a coherent and holistic approach. Therefore, a NbS project was implemented in an urban green area to tackle several societal challenges and assess through the IUCN Global Standard for NbS self-assessment tool, to a Portuguese case study: the Cavalum River, in the City of Penafiel, specifically the Cavalum Valley. Situ surveys and data collection regarding biodiversity were carried out, as well as the identification of the main societal challenges and ecosystem services provided. The results highlight the relevance of the Cavalum Valley’s role as an urban green space with the capability, through NbS interventions, to have the heterogeneity needed to support biodiversity and increase ES functions, while complying with the GCA mandatory indicators for Penafiel, helping the implementation of the SDGs. The IUCN Global Standard for NbS tool allowed the link of different criteria and indicators, leading to a more comprehensive and effective co-management, involving policymakers, managers, and key stakeholders. This allowed all intervenient to have a more holistic view of the project's design, implementation, and monitoring, increasing transparency in decisionmaking.

The international network of provenance trials in cork-oak was established as a result of the EU Concerted Action FAIR 202, 1995-2000. 34 provenances were selected in the natural range of cork oak and trials were established in 1996/97 in France, Italy, Portugal, Tunisia and Spain. This study compares the behavior of provenances in the trials of Grighini (Sardinia), Monte Fava and Quinta da Nogueira (Portugal), Monfrague (Spain), Les Maures (France) and Tebabe (Tunisia). Observations on total height (Ht) and diameter at beast height (DBH) are used to compare and assess adaptation within sites and among sites. Climate at the provenance site seed collection and at trials sites is used to characterize the behavior of provenances. The results reveal that the provenances, ES 5 (1063 mm), IT16 (910 mm), IT12 (937 mm), 937, TU32 (948 mm), FR2 (958 mm, FR1 (963 mm, MA31 (970 mm), ES8 (993 mm) are able to adapt and show good growth under conditions of decrease of total annual rainfall and strong decrease in case of TU33 (1610mm), MA27 (1280 mm). On the other hand provenances coming from sites of low precipitation not always show relevant performance in sites of higher precipitation as IT14 (448 mm), ES10 (455 mm), MA29 (479 mm). These results are discussed in the impact climate change (CC) may have in adaptation and evolution of cork oak. Our results show that cork oak will not face serious threats if drought increases in the Mediterranean region, since some populations are showing capable to cope successfully with decrease of total precipitation. The ongoing results from the cork-oak international network trials FAIR 202 show the importance of this line of research and the need to establish harmonized criteria on data collection to enhance the comparability. As cork quality is a key issue on cork-oak economic sustainability it is critical to establish harmonized criteria in cork harvesting for further studies to compare cork quality with special reference for the assessment of the genetic control of cork production and heritability.

Os incêndios são um problema de dimensão mundial que têm ganho cada vez mais relevância com as transformações climáticas. Portugal é um dos países que tradicionalmente mais sofre com este tipo de eventos climáticos catastróficos e o futuro não se revela promissor. O incêndio de Pedrógão Grande foi, até ao momento, o pináculo deste tipo de acontecimentos em território nacional, com uma área ardida enorme, destruição considerável de bens e, mais importante ainda, uma perda de vida humana elevadíssima, resultando no maior número de vítimas num incêndio no país. É natural que sejam então levantadas questões sobre que explicações existem para estes fenómenos e que melhores soluções serviriam as florestas portuguesas. Através de uma revisão da literatura e análise das estatísticas disponíveis, este Relatório de Estágio olha para Pedrógão Grande e propõe a Tragédia dos Anticomuns como uma das explicações para este acontecimento.

CasaDuna/DuneHouse is a center of art, research and memory created in 2017 by the philosopher Julia Naidin and the visual artist Fernando Codeço. The center is situated at Atafona, a district of the city of São João da Barra, located in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Atafona used to be a seaside resort town, but it has been experiencing a very powerful process of erosion in the last decades. As a result of rising sea levels, the landscape has been radically reshaped—as a consequence, part of the coast was swallowed and several buildings slowly became ruins and are now partially submerged. For this reason, the main beach was nicknamed “Apocalypse beach.” The process of erosion taking place in the region is in part a natural one—it is also largely due to the encounter of the Atlantic Ocean with the Paraíba do Sul River—but it seems to have been accelerated by the massive industrial process that took place in the region. The river traverses the three most industrial regions of Brazil, namely, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. CasaDuna is a center for art, research, and memory, and is shaped by the physical and psychological processes of erosion that have transformed the landscape and people in the region.

Nos dias de hoje a temática das alterações climáticas é amplamente reconhecida pela comunidade científica, tendo-se tornado numa questão que não se pode, nem se deve, ignorar devido ao aumento de frequência de eventos extremos nas últimas décadas. Os Pequenos Estados Insulares são particularmente vulneráveis aos impactos provocados pelo clima em mutação, e Portugal pode ter um papel fundamental ao financiar e ao promover a capacitação institucional dos Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa através de projetos de cooperação bilateral no âmbito das alterações climáticas. Desta forma, e tendo em consideração o panorama atual, procura-se contribuir, através do estudo de caso apresentado (São Tomé e Príncipe), para a perceção de quais podem ser os principais obstáculos e os principais benefícios encontrados na implementação de um projeto de capacitação institucional num Pequeno Estado Insular em Desenvolvimento.

A transformação do meio ambiente ocorre de forma tão intensa, que a nossa linguagem e estruturas conceptuais apresentam um difícil processo de adaptação em entender cada aspecto de cada vez. Os impactos do desenvolvimento geral, do crescimento populacional e do aquecimento global, acompanhados pelas esperadas mudanças na biodiversidade, são os três principais aspectos nos quais questões específicas relativas à saúde mental evoluem. A incompatibilidade entre a nossa experiência ecológica e a nossa capacidade de conceptualizar e compreender um novo paradigma é justificada por uma onda de completa agonia, angústia e tristeza. A parte integrante da identidade social e cultural de muitas comunidades indígenas reside numa estrutura que explora a maneira como os elementos de mundos interagem uns com os outros, com o propósito de formar um todo complexo que actua como um sistema. Esta dissertação acompanha a dor existencial causada pelas mudanças no meio ambiente, especificamente na comunidade Sámi, na região da Sápmi, no norte da Noruega. O tema em questão gira em torno de uma montanha-russa emocional da percepção da identidade do indivíduo e da ruptura da unidade natural. A resposta psicológica à perda causada pela destruição ambiental antropogénica ou pela alteração climática na comunidade indígena Sámi constrói os fundamentos teóricos do luto ecológico e descreve de que maneira essa perda ecológica é prevista num ambiente natural. O sofrimento social no contexto ambiental rompe a presumível relação ambivalente entre o ser humano e a natureza, ao mesmo tempo que liga a fractura dinâmica na teia entre instabilidade social, a mutabilidade cultural, os problemas psíquicos e a destruição de espaço.

Recent decades in South America (SA) have been marked by an increase in the frequency and magnitude of hot and dry spells. This changing pattern is unequivocally tied to an unsustainable level of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Future climate change projections indicate a further aggravation of this trend, representing a serious threat to ecosystem sustainability and to human well-being. Over the past few years, the scientific community has been joining efforts to improve the knowledge around this topic. Even so, a thorough characterization of droughts and heatwaves, particularly when their occur in a compound event manner, is still lacking for SA. The assessment, under a climate change context, of the atmospheric forcing mechanisms and of the land–atmosphere feedbacks that control the intensification and propagation of hot and dry spells, is still missing for the region. This thesis aims to fill these gaps and to provide solid answers to the following main research questions: (i) What was the historical evolution of compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) conditions over SA? (ii) What are the physical mechanisms driving these compound events? (iii) What should we expect in a future climate change scenario? Results show that vast areas in SA have recorded a significant increase in the number of CDHW episodes. Recent summer periods have witnessed strong soil moisture–temperature coupling conditions that triggered record-breaking temperatures and outstanding ‘mega-heatwave’ episodes. A long-term soil drying trend resulting from a joint contribution of natural variability, via large-scale tropical and subtropical dynamics, and climate change, via increasing temperatures, has predisposed some regions in SA to face unprecedented droughts, temperatures and devastating wildfires in the recent years. An overall increment of these compound episodes is expected in the future, partially due to an enhancement of the soil moisture–temperature coupling in some regions of SA. This thesis highlights the complex interplay between distinct physical mechanisms that modulate the occurrence of CDHW conditions, and calls attention to under-examined feedback processes that need to be properly addressed by climate models, setting ground for a more effective design of mitigation measures by authorities.

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers.

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.

Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to Tair. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with Tair in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.

Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.

The impacts of climate change on human health are often underestimated or perceived to be in a distant future. Here, we present the projected impacts of climate change in the context of COVID-19, a recent human health catastrophe. We compared projected heat mortality with COVID-19 deaths in 38 cities worldwide and found that in half of these cities, heat-related deaths could exceed annual COVID-19 deaths in less than ten years (at + 3.0 °C increase in global warming relative to preindustrial). In seven of these cities, heat mortality could exceed COVID-19 deaths in less than five years. Our results underscore the crucial need for climate action and for the integration of climate change into public health discourse and policy.

AIM: The aim was to identify the primary drivers of compositional change in breeding bird assemblages over a 40-year period. LOCATION: Britain. TIME PERIOD: From 1970 to 2010. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Birds. METHODS: Using morphological trait measurements and a dataset of presence-absence data for British breeding birds surveyed in 10 km × 10 km hectads during two time periods, we calculated temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity for each hectad alongside the change in species richness, mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD) and mean pairwise distance (MPD). We also estimated potential drivers of beta diversity, including climatic and land-use and land-cover (LULC) change variables, elevation and assemblage species richness in 1970 (1970rich). We used random forest regressions to test which variables best explained compositional change in the assemblages. We also assessed spatial taxonomic and functional change by analysing multiple-site beta diversity and pairwise dissimilarities between time periods. RESULTS: Initial (1970) species richness was the most important predictor (highest importance score) across all models, with areas characterized by higher initial richness experiencing less assemblage change overall. The coordinates included to capture spatial autocorrelation in the data were also important predictors of change. Most cli-mate and LULC variables had relatively low explanatory power; elevation and average temperature were the most influential. All metrics increased slightly with increasing elevation, except for species richness change and MPD, which decreased. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The composition of British breeding bird assemblages changed substantially between 1970 and 2010. Spatial heterogeneity increased, both taxonomically and functionally. We show evidence that hectads with larger assemblages have been buffered from temporal diversity change and that those at higher elevations changed more in composition than those at lower elevations. Overall, coarse-resolution climate and LULC explained only small to moderate amounts of variation, suggesting that stochastic assembly change or finer-scale drivers might be drivers of temporal changes in assemblage composition.

Resultados de uma nova geração de modelos climáticos, forçados pelos cenários RCP8.5 e RCP4.5 de concentrações atmosféricas de gases de estufa e aerossol, estabelecidos pelo IPCC para o seu quinto relatório ainda em preparação, são utilizados para caracterizar o clima nas ilhas dos Açores e da Madeira e a sua resposta ao aquecimento global em curso. A metodologia aqui desenvolvida recorre ao novo modelo global EC-Earth, a dados da reanálise ERA-Interim e a resultados de um extenso conjunto de simulações com o modelo de investigação WRF, utilizando, pela primeira vez, uma metodologia dinâmica para a regionalização de campos globais para resoluções suficientemente finas, nas quais se representa explicitamente uma parte do efeito das ilhas e da sua complexidade topográfica. Os resultados aqui analisados sugerem aumentos da temperatura média superiores a 1 ᵒC a meio do século XXI nos Açores e da Madeira, atingindo valores superiores a 2,5 ᵒC no final do século, acompanhados por uma redução da precipitação anual da ordem dos 10% nos Açores mas que poderá atingir os 30% na Madeira. Estas alterações são suficientemente grandes para justificar impactos muito alargados sobre os ecossistemas insulares e sobre a população humana. Os resultados apresentados mostram a vantagem de utilização da metodologia proposta, em especial para uma representação adequada do regime de precipitação em ilhas de topografia complexa, sugerindo mesmo a necessidade de resoluções mais elevadas em trabalhos futuros.

For centuries, islands and mountains have incited the interest of naturalists, evolutionary biologists and ecologists. Islands have been the cradle for biogeography and speciation theories, while mountain ranges have informed how population adaptation to thermal floors shapes the distribution of species globally. Islands of varying size and mountains’ altitudinal ranges constitute unique “natural laboratories” where one can investigate the effects of species loss or global warming on ecosystem service delivery. Although invertebrate pollination or seed dispersal processes are steadily being examined, biological control research is lagging. While observations of a wider niche breadth among insect pollinators in small (i.e., species-poor) islands or at high (i.e., colder) altitudes likely also hold for biological control agents, such remains to be examined. In this Perspective piece, we draw on published datasets to show that island size alone does not explain biological control outcomes. Instead, one needs to account for species’ functional traits, habitat heterogeneity, host community make-up, phenology, site history or even anthropogenic forces. Meanwhile, data from mountain ranges show how parasitism rates of Noctuid moths and Tephritid fruit flies exhibit species- and context-dependent shifts with altitude. Nevertheless, future empirical work in mountain settings could clarify the thermal niche space of individual natural enemy taxa and overall thermal resilience of biological control. We further discuss how global databases can be screened, while ecological theories can be tested, and simulation models defined based upon observational or manipulative assays in either system. Doing so can yield unprecedented insights into the fate of biological control in the Anthropocene and inform ways to reinforce this vital ecosystem service under global environmental change scenarios.