Publicação
Determinants of Success of an Initial Coin Offering
| Resumo: | This doctoral thesis rigorously investigates the factors influencing Initial Coin Offering (ICO) success, with a particular focus on the contrast between developed and developing countries. The research posits that ICO performance is shaped by a complex interplay of economic, social, environmental, and institutional factors that vary across nations. The research consists of three interconnected studies designed to address specific gaps within the existing ICO literature.The first study systematically reviews the literature to identify key determinants of ICO success. It proposes a novel, multidimensional definition of success that includes fundraising efficiency, token performance, project development, and business model sustainability, moving beyond a singular focus on capital raised. The findings classify success factors into five categories: human and social capital, technological characteristics, governance and legal aspects, campaign financing, and environmental and social factors. This study also traces the evolution from unregulated ICOs to more secure models like Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs) and Security Token Offerings (STOs).The second study identifies factors driving ICO demand across 89 countries. It reveals a positive correlation between a nation’s environmental commitment and the quality of its educational and research institutions, indicating higher ICO prevalence in sustainability-focused, human-capital-rich nations. Conversely, political instability, country risk, high bank concentration, and limited financial freedom are negatively correlated with ICO emergence, suggesting ICOs serve as an alternative financing avenue in financially constrained or uncertain environments.The third study investigates ICO success factors in developed versus developing countries, focusing on socioeconomic, environmental, and financial variables. A key finding is the significant impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors on fundraising, an effect that is more pronounced in developing nations. A paradoxical demand for ICOs is observed in developed countries with higher per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, potentially linked to energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining.Theoretically, this dissertation leverages Signaling Theory to argue that ESG practices signal project quality and mitigate information asymmetry, particularly in emerging markets. Supporting Financial Development Theory, the research demonstrates an inverse relationship between financial system maturity and reliance on ICOs, underscoring their role in financial inclusion. This aligns with Resource Dependence Theory, as startups in less developed financial infrastructures use ICOs to reduce dependence on traditional financing. By integrating Institutional, Signal, and Stakeholder Theories, the research emphasizes the importance of a national environmental orientation and robust educational institutions. Methodologically, it employs advanced techniques like Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE).Managerially, the findings emphasize the importance of ESG factors, experienced teams, and transparent governance for ICO success. For policymakers, the research calls for a balance between investor protection and innovation, acknowledging that widespread ICO adoption can enhance capital access but may also pose risks such as financial instability. |
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| Autores principais: | Moxotó, Ana Claudia de Araujo |
| Assunto: | Blockchain Coins Cryptoassets ICO Tokens Blockchain Coins Cryptoassets ICO Tokens |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | tese de doutoramento |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Coimbra |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Estudo Geral - Universidade de Coimbra |
| Resumo: | This doctoral thesis rigorously investigates the factors influencing Initial Coin Offering (ICO) success, with a particular focus on the contrast between developed and developing countries. The research posits that ICO performance is shaped by a complex interplay of economic, social, environmental, and institutional factors that vary across nations. The research consists of three interconnected studies designed to address specific gaps within the existing ICO literature.The first study systematically reviews the literature to identify key determinants of ICO success. It proposes a novel, multidimensional definition of success that includes fundraising efficiency, token performance, project development, and business model sustainability, moving beyond a singular focus on capital raised. The findings classify success factors into five categories: human and social capital, technological characteristics, governance and legal aspects, campaign financing, and environmental and social factors. This study also traces the evolution from unregulated ICOs to more secure models like Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs) and Security Token Offerings (STOs).The second study identifies factors driving ICO demand across 89 countries. It reveals a positive correlation between a nation’s environmental commitment and the quality of its educational and research institutions, indicating higher ICO prevalence in sustainability-focused, human-capital-rich nations. Conversely, political instability, country risk, high bank concentration, and limited financial freedom are negatively correlated with ICO emergence, suggesting ICOs serve as an alternative financing avenue in financially constrained or uncertain environments.The third study investigates ICO success factors in developed versus developing countries, focusing on socioeconomic, environmental, and financial variables. A key finding is the significant impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors on fundraising, an effect that is more pronounced in developing nations. A paradoxical demand for ICOs is observed in developed countries with higher per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, potentially linked to energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining.Theoretically, this dissertation leverages Signaling Theory to argue that ESG practices signal project quality and mitigate information asymmetry, particularly in emerging markets. Supporting Financial Development Theory, the research demonstrates an inverse relationship between financial system maturity and reliance on ICOs, underscoring their role in financial inclusion. This aligns with Resource Dependence Theory, as startups in less developed financial infrastructures use ICOs to reduce dependence on traditional financing. By integrating Institutional, Signal, and Stakeholder Theories, the research emphasizes the importance of a national environmental orientation and robust educational institutions. Methodologically, it employs advanced techniques like Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE).Managerially, the findings emphasize the importance of ESG factors, experienced teams, and transparent governance for ICO success. For policymakers, the research calls for a balance between investor protection and innovation, acknowledging that widespread ICO adoption can enhance capital access but may also pose risks such as financial instability. |
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