Publicação
Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators
| Resumo: | The proposed work is a study that attempts to evaluate the financial impacts of pandemic mitigation strategies in order to be part of a central model that forecasts different scenarios in pandemic situations considering the impact of mitigation procedures in the Economic System and Healthcare System. Economic fluctuations impose a more significant challenge on prediction models, and pandemic modeling methodologies are primarily concerned with the variability of epidemic features, the efficiency of control measures over time, and the development of different viral variants. In this context, this paper correlates economic indicators with quantitative parameters of the last three respiratory virus pandemics, specifically the GDP and the unemployment rates, with a sample encompassing three European countries, the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany, that pass through the pandemics under study. The results provide intriguing information, such as the moderated and weak correlation factor between deaths with GDP in the Spanish flu and Swine flu, and the WWI and the 2009 crises can explain which. On the other hand, the correlation factors associated with COVID-19 show a weak to moderate correlation parameter with GDP and unemployment rates but present interesting numbers when the number of people fully vaccinated is compared with GDP. Also, as the correlation factor does not presente a strong relation between daily deaths and GDP, this indicates a necessity for comparison with other economic parameters. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Carvalho, Kathleen |
| Outros Autores: | Reis, Luis Paulo; Teixeira, João Paulo |
| Assunto: | Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | working paper |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| _version_ | 1867172953785892864 |
|---|---|
| author | Carvalho, Kathleen |
| author2 | Reis, Luis Paulo Teixeira, João Paulo |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Carvalho, Kathleen Reis, Luis Paulo Teixeira, João Paulo |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Carvalho, Kathleen\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-8623-7943\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Reis, Luis Paulo\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Teixeira, João Paulo\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Carvalho, Kathleen Reis, Luis Paulo Teixeira, João Paulo |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2025-07-04T10:51:30Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2025-07-04T10:51:30Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Carvalho, Kathleen Reis, Luis Paulo Teixeira, João Paulo |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2025-07-04T10:51:30Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2025-07-04T10:51:30Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/34642 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| dc.rights.cclincense.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 |
| description | The proposed work is a study that attempts to evaluate the financial impacts of pandemic mitigation strategies in order to be part of a central model that forecasts different scenarios in pandemic situations considering the impact of mitigation procedures in the Economic System and Healthcare System. Economic fluctuations impose a more significant challenge on prediction models, and pandemic modeling methodologies are primarily concerned with the variability of epidemic features, the efficiency of control measures over time, and the development of different viral variants. In this context, this paper correlates economic indicators with quantitative parameters of the last three respiratory virus pandemics, specifically the GDP and the unemployment rates, with a sample encompassing three European countries, the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany, that pass through the pandemics under study. The results provide intriguing information, such as the moderated and weak correlation factor between deaths with GDP in the Spanish flu and Swine flu, and the WWI and the 2009 crises can explain which. On the other hand, the correlation factors associated with COVID-19 show a weak to moderate correlation parameter with GDP and unemployment rates but present interesting numbers when the number of people fully vaccinated is compared with GDP. Also, as the correlation factor does not presente a strong relation between daily deaths and GDP, this indicates a necessity for comparison with other economic parameters. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | workingPaper |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/bitstreams/94545729-4f73-4da1-8d56-96f0ea184b9d/download |
| funding.funder.alternateName_str_mv | FCT FCT FCT |
| funding.funder.identifier_str_mv | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 |
| funding.funder.name_str_mv | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
| funding.name_str_mv | 6817 - DCRRNI ID 6817 - DCRRNI ID 6817 - DCRRNI ID |
| id | ipb_17fa79f7bcd34a4b8d482db9f57cb6f6 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/34642 |
| instacron_str | ipb |
| institution | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| instname_str | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ipb |
| network_name_str | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/34642 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ipb |
| person_str_mv | Carvalho, Kathleen Carvalho, Kathleen https://www.ciencia-id.pt/E61F-8971-5FA1 E61F-8971-5FA1 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8623-7943 0000-0002-8623-7943 Reis, Luis Paulo Teixeira, João Paulo |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| reponame_str | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ipb |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ipb |
| spelling | engElsevierengThe proposed work is a study that attempts to evaluate the financial impacts of pandemic mitigation strategies in order to be part of a central model that forecasts different scenarios in pandemic situations considering the impact of mitigation procedures in the Economic System and Healthcare System. Economic fluctuations impose a more significant challenge on prediction models, and pandemic modeling methodologies are primarily concerned with the variability of epidemic features, the efficiency of control measures over time, and the development of different viral variants. In this context, this paper correlates economic indicators with quantitative parameters of the last three respiratory virus pandemics, specifically the GDP and the unemployment rates, with a sample encompassing three European countries, the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany, that pass through the pandemics under study. The results provide intriguing information, such as the moderated and weak correlation factor between deaths with GDP in the Spanish flu and Swine flu, and the WWI and the 2009 crises can explain which. On the other hand, the correlation factors associated with COVID-19 show a weak to moderate correlation parameter with GDP and unemployment rates but present interesting numbers when the number of people fully vaccinated is compared with GDP. Also, as the correlation factor does not presente a strong relation between daily deaths and GDP, this indicates a necessity for comparison with other economic parameters.application/pdfengAnalyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicatorsPersonalCarvalho, KathleenDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/95e4ee5b-6232-45f4-a17d-465e70038188DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/95e4ee5b-6232-45f4-a17d-465e70038188CarvalhoKathleenCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.ptE61F-8971-5FA1ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-8623-7943Reis, Luis PauloTeixeira, João PauloHostingInstitutionOrganizationalBiblioteca Digital do IPBe-mailmailto:dspace@ipb.ptdspace@ipb.ptISSNIsPartOf1877-0509DOIIsPartOf10.1016/j.procs.2025.02.1502025-07-04T10:51:30Z20252025-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/34642http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessGross Domestic ProductPandemicsEconomic parametersCorrelation AnalysisCOVID-19Swine FluH2N2H1N1H3N2SARS984039 bytesFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaResearch Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics6817 - DCRRNI IDCrossref Funder IDhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871Fundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaResearch Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics6817 - DCRRNI IDCrossref Funder IDhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871Fundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaAssociate Laboratory for Sustainability and Tecnology in Mountain Regions6817 - DCRRNI IDCrossref Funder IDhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871other research producthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042working paper2025http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/bitstreams/94545729-4f73-4da1-8d56-96f0ea184b9d/downloadProcedia Computer Science256538546 |
| spellingShingle | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators Carvalho, Kathleen Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| title | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| title_full | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| title_fullStr | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| title_short | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| title_sort | Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators |
| topic | Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| topic_facet | Gross Domestic Product Pandemics Economic parameters Correlation Analysis COVID-19 Swine Flu H2N2 H1N1 H3N2 SARS |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/34642 |
| visible | 1 |