Publicação
An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models
| Resumo: | A small number of people infected with a contagious disease in a large community can lead to the rapid spread of the disease by many of the people in that community, leading to an epidemic. Mathematical models of epidemics allow estimating several impacts on the population, such as the total and maximum number of people infected, as well as the duration and the moment of greatest impact of the epidemic. This information is of great use for the definition of public health policies. This work is concerned with the simulation of the spread of infectious diseases in small to medium communities by applying the Monte Carlo method to a Susceptibles-Infectives-Recovered (SIR) stochastic epidemic model. To minimize the computational effort involved, a simple parallelization approach was adopted and deployed in a small HPC cluster. The simulations conducted show that an epidemic outbreak can occur even if the initial number of infected people is small, and that this probability decreases significantly with the vaccination of a population subset. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Balsa, Carlos |
| Outros Autores: | Lopes, Isabel Maria; Rufino, José; Guarda, Teresa |
| Assunto: | Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| Ano: | 2020 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | comunicação em conferência |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso restrito |
| Instituição associada: | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| _version_ | 1867172679752089600 |
|---|---|
| author | Balsa, Carlos |
| author2 | Lopes, Isabel Maria Rufino, José Guarda, Teresa |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Balsa, Carlos Lopes, Isabel Maria Rufino, José Guarda, Teresa |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Balsa, Carlos\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0003-2431-8665\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Lopes, Isabel Maria\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-5614-3516\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Rufino, José\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-1344-8264\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Guarda, Teresa\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Balsa, Carlos Lopes, Isabel Maria Rufino, José Guarda, Teresa |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2020-06-17T10:43:55Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2020-06-17T10:43:55Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Balsa, Carlos Lopes, Isabel Maria Rufino, José Guarda, Teresa |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2020-06-17T10:43:55Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2020-06-17T10:43:55Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/22092 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer |
| dc.rights.cclincense.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794 |
| description | A small number of people infected with a contagious disease in a large community can lead to the rapid spread of the disease by many of the people in that community, leading to an epidemic. Mathematical models of epidemics allow estimating several impacts on the population, such as the total and maximum number of people infected, as well as the duration and the moment of greatest impact of the epidemic. This information is of great use for the definition of public health policies. This work is concerned with the simulation of the spread of infectious diseases in small to medium communities by applying the Monte Carlo method to a Susceptibles-Infectives-Recovered (SIR) stochastic epidemic model. To minimize the computational effort involved, a simple parallelization approach was adopted and deployed in a small HPC cluster. The simulations conducted show that an epidemic outbreak can occur even if the initial number of infected people is small, and that this probability decreases significantly with the vaccination of a population subset. |
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| eu_rights_str_mv | restrictedAccess |
| format | conferencePaper |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/bitstreams/018e48a0-8054-4f79-b1bc-510a3cf1904f/download |
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| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/22092 |
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| institution | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| instname_str | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| language | eng |
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| oai_identifier_str | oai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/22092 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ipb |
| person_str_mv | Balsa, Carlos Balsa, Carlos https://www.ciencia-id.pt/DE1E-2F7A-AAB1 DE1E-2F7A-AAB1 http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2431-8665 0000-0003-2431-8665 Lopes, Isabel Maria Lopes, Isabel Maria https://www.ciencia-id.pt/8812-AE1C-A316 8812-AE1C-A316 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5614-3516 0000-0002-5614-3516 Rufino, José Rufino, José https://www.ciencia-id.pt/C414-F47F-6323 C414-F47F-6323 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1344-8264 0000-0002-1344-8264 Guarda, Teresa |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer |
| reponame_str | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
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| spelling | engSpringerpt_PTA small number of people infected with a contagious disease in a large community can lead to the rapid spread of the disease by many of the people in that community, leading to an epidemic. Mathematical models of epidemics allow estimating several impacts on the population, such as the total and maximum number of people infected, as well as the duration and the moment of greatest impact of the epidemic. This information is of great use for the definition of public health policies. This work is concerned with the simulation of the spread of infectious diseases in small to medium communities by applying the Monte Carlo method to a Susceptibles-Infectives-Recovered (SIR) stochastic epidemic model. To minimize the computational effort involved, a simple parallelization approach was adopted and deployed in a small HPC cluster. The simulations conducted show that an epidemic outbreak can occur even if the initial number of infected people is small, and that this probability decreases significantly with the vaccination of a population subset.application/pdfpt_PTAn exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic modelsPersonalBalsa, CarlosDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/d0e5ccff-9696-4f4f-9567-8d698a6bf17dDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/d0e5ccff-9696-4f4f-9567-8d698a6bf17dBalsaCarlosCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.ptDE1E-2F7A-AAB1ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0003-2431-8665Researcher IDhttps://www.researcherid.comM-8735-2013Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com23391719100PersonalLopes, Isabel MariaDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/111716db-94a0-4c24-b739-330dc2ae79fcDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/111716db-94a0-4c24-b739-330dc2ae79fcLopesIsabel MariaCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt8812-AE1C-A316ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-5614-3516Researcher IDhttps://www.researcherid.comA-1728-2014Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com55211017300Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com57190212117Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com57207843433PersonalRufino, JoséDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/1e24d2ce-a354-442a-bef8-eebadd94b385DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/1e24d2ce-a354-442a-bef8-eebadd94b385RufinoJoséCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.ptC414-F47F-6323ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-1344-8264Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com55947199100Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com57188967176Guarda, TeresaHostingInstitutionOrganizationalBiblioteca Digital do IPBe-mailmailto:dspace@ipb.ptdspace@ipb.ptDOIIsPartOf10.1007/978-3-030-45688-7_712020-06-17T10:43:55Z20202020-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/22092http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecrestricted accessEpidemic modelsInfectious diseasesNumerical simulationsParallel computingStochastic models632993 bytesother research producthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794conference paper2020http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecapplication/pdffulltexthttps://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/bitstreams/018e48a0-8054-4f79-b1bc-510a3cf1904f/downloadTrends and innovations in informations sytems and technologies1159 AISC726736 |
| spellingShingle | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models Balsa, Carlos Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| title | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| title_full | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| title_fullStr | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| title_full_unstemmed | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| title_short | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| title_sort | An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models |
| topic | Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| topic_facet | Epidemic models Infectious diseases Numerical simulations Parallel computing Stochastic models |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/22092 |
| visible | 1 |