Publicação
Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior
| Resumo: | This work aims to investigate the role of sequences of risk factors from childhood to young adulthood in predicting subsequent criminal convictions. This study uses the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) dataset, a prospective longitudinal research study that followed 411 males from South London from the age of 8 to 61 years. Temporal sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were analyzed as predictors of subsequent criminal convictions up to the age of 61. Risk factors related to poverty, parenting problems, and children’s risk-taking predisposition at ages 8–10 emerged as prevalent starting points for the most highly predictive developmental sequences leading to convictions. The risk of a criminal conviction significantly increased if these risk factors were followed by low IQ scores or association with delinquent friends at ages 12–14, and by school and professional problems or drug addiction during late adolescence (ages 16–18). At each developmental stage, specific risk factors intricately combine to form chains of risk during development, subsequently predicting criminal convictions. A trajectory-of-risk-need-responsivity approach that identifies and breaks chains of risk factors that generate and enhance favorable conditions for criminal convictions is discussed. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Basto-Pereira, Miguel |
| Outros Autores: | Farrington, David; Maciel, Laura |
| Assunto: | Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| Ano: | 2024 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Ispa-Instituto Universitário |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório do Ispa - Instituto Universitário |
| _version_ | 1868077117519953920 |
|---|---|
| author | Basto-Pereira, Miguel |
| author2 | Farrington, David Maciel, Laura |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Basto-Pereira, Miguel Farrington, David Maciel, Laura |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Repositório do ISPA |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Basto-Pereira, Miguel\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-2929-1775\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Farrington, David\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0003-1312-2325\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Maciel, Laura\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Repositório do ISPA |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Basto-Pereira, Miguel Farrington, David Maciel, Laura |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2024-05-07T17:30:18Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2024-05-07T17:30:18Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Repositório do ISPA |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Basto-Pereira, Miguel Farrington, David Maciel, Laura |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2024-05-07T17:30:18Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2024-05-07T17:30:18Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/9767 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer International Publishing AG |
| dc.rights.cclincense.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | This work aims to investigate the role of sequences of risk factors from childhood to young adulthood in predicting subsequent criminal convictions. This study uses the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) dataset, a prospective longitudinal research study that followed 411 males from South London from the age of 8 to 61 years. Temporal sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were analyzed as predictors of subsequent criminal convictions up to the age of 61. Risk factors related to poverty, parenting problems, and children’s risk-taking predisposition at ages 8–10 emerged as prevalent starting points for the most highly predictive developmental sequences leading to convictions. The risk of a criminal conviction significantly increased if these risk factors were followed by low IQ scores or association with delinquent friends at ages 12–14, and by school and professional problems or drug addiction during late adolescence (ages 16–18). At each developmental stage, specific risk factors intricately combine to form chains of risk during development, subsequently predicting criminal convictions. A trajectory-of-risk-need-responsivity approach that identifies and breaks chains of risk factors that generate and enhance favorable conditions for criminal convictions is discussed. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ispa.pt/bitstreams/d3b97791-8b08-42d5-bb95-9c5bc61b00bd/download |
| id | ispa_3fa52295c899ae46f37cc8bfd3de5225 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/9767 |
| instacron_str | ispa |
| institution | Ispa-Instituto Universitário |
| instname_str | Ispa-Instituto Universitário |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ispa |
| network_name_str | Repositório do Ispa - Instituto Universitário |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.ispa.pt:10400.12/9767 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ispa |
| person_str_mv | Basto-Pereira, Miguel Basto-Pereira, Miguel https://www.ciencia-id.pt/2A19-7413-2B4D 2A19-7413-2B4D http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2929-1775 0000-0002-2929-1775 Farrington, David Farrington, David http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1312-2325 0000-0003-1312-2325 Maciel, Laura Maciel, Laura https://www.ciencia-id.pt/5D1B-36E4-9D7F 5D1B-36E4-9D7F |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer International Publishing AG |
| reponame_str | Repositório do Ispa - Instituto Universitário |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ispa |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ispa |
| spelling | engSpringer International Publishing AGpt_PTThis work aims to investigate the role of sequences of risk factors from childhood to young adulthood in predicting subsequent criminal convictions. This study uses the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) dataset, a prospective longitudinal research study that followed 411 males from South London from the age of 8 to 61 years. Temporal sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were analyzed as predictors of subsequent criminal convictions up to the age of 61. Risk factors related to poverty, parenting problems, and children’s risk-taking predisposition at ages 8–10 emerged as prevalent starting points for the most highly predictive developmental sequences leading to convictions. The risk of a criminal conviction significantly increased if these risk factors were followed by low IQ scores or association with delinquent friends at ages 12–14, and by school and professional problems or drug addiction during late adolescence (ages 16–18). At each developmental stage, specific risk factors intricately combine to form chains of risk during development, subsequently predicting criminal convictions. A trajectory-of-risk-need-responsivity approach that identifies and breaks chains of risk factors that generate and enhance favorable conditions for criminal convictions is discussed.application/pdfpt_PTUnraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behaviorPersonalBasto-Pereira, MiguelDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/90911de0-de70-44b6-9b30-51829eb3db56DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/90911de0-de70-44b6-9b30-51829eb3db56Basto PereiraMiguelCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt2A19-7413-2B4DORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-2929-1775PersonalFarrington, DavidDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/f558524c-f933-4dec-9de3-87ed3dbcb2f1DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/f558524c-f933-4dec-9de3-87ed3dbcb2f1FarringtonDavidORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0003-1312-2325Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com7006559478PersonalMaciel, LauraDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/73d5a2ac-6355-498d-8022-34ccc4516524DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/73d5a2ac-6355-498d-8022-34ccc4516524MacielLaura JardimCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt5D1B-36E4-9D7FHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório do ISPAe-mailmailto:repositorio@ispa.ptrepositorio@ispa.ptISSNIsPartOf2199465XDOIIsPartOf10.1007/s40865-024-00254-52024-05-07T17:30:18Z20242024-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/9767http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessCrime preventionLongitudinalOffendingRisk factorsSequences693336 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal article2024http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ispa.pt/bitstreams/d3b97791-8b08-42d5-bb95-9c5bc61b00bd/downloadJournal of Developmental and Life-Course CriminologySwitzerland |
| spellingShingle | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior Basto-Pereira, Miguel Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| title | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| title_full | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| title_fullStr | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| title_short | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| title_sort | Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behavior |
| topic | Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| topic_facet | Crime prevention Longitudinal Offending Risk factors Sequences |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/9767 |
| visible | 1 |