Publicação
Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election
| Resumo: | This article examines the 2022 Brazilian presidential campaign to explore the dynamic relationship between political alignment and electoral trust. We argue that trust in elections is not solely a function of partisanship but is also influenced by exposure to elite narratives and citizens’ expectations about who will win. Using a five-wave panel survey conducted during the 2022 election in Brazil, we analyze both between-individual differences and within-individual changes in vote intention and trust in Brazil’s electronic voting system. Employing within–between models, we separate stable partisan differences from changes associated with individual-level shifts in political alignment. We show that then-President Jair Bolsonaro’s voters consistently expressed lower trust in the electronic voting system compared to other voters. Yet, among Bolsonaro voters, trust in the electronic voting system was significantly higher for those who expected him to win and lower for those who expected him to lose. Critically, exploiting within-person variation, we show that switching vote preference toward Bolsonaro is associated with declines in trust. These findings suggest that elite cues and outcome expectations interact to shape electoral trust. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Mello, Fernando |
| Outros Autores: | Jurado, Ignacio |
| Assunto: | backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | unknown |
| Instituição associada: | Cogitatio Press |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Politics and Governance |
| _version_ | 1869072356726538240 |
|---|---|
| author | Mello, Fernando |
| author2 | Jurado, Ignacio |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Mello, Fernando Jurado, Ignacio |
| author_role | author |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Mello, Fernando\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Jurado, Ignacio\"}] |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Mello, Fernando Jurado, Ignacio |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Mello, Fernando Jurado, Ignacio |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11547 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Cogitatio Press |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.rights.rights.copyright.fl_str_mv | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | Politics and Governance; Vol 14 (2026): Causes and Consequences of Confidence in Democratic Elections 2183-2463 10.17645/pag.i478 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | This article examines the 2022 Brazilian presidential campaign to explore the dynamic relationship between political alignment and electoral trust. We argue that trust in elections is not solely a function of partisanship but is also influenced by exposure to elite narratives and citizens’ expectations about who will win. Using a five-wave panel survey conducted during the 2022 election in Brazil, we analyze both between-individual differences and within-individual changes in vote intention and trust in Brazil’s electronic voting system. Employing within–between models, we separate stable partisan differences from changes associated with individual-level shifts in political alignment. We show that then-President Jair Bolsonaro’s voters consistently expressed lower trust in the electronic voting system compared to other voters. Yet, among Bolsonaro voters, trust in the electronic voting system was significantly higher for those who expected him to win and lower for those who expected him to lose. Critically, exploiting within-person variation, we show that switching vote preference toward Bolsonaro is associated with declines in trust. These findings suggest that elite cues and outcome expectations interact to shape electoral trust. |
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| format | article |
| id | pg_688a89eebf564d6e1cea116a9fae237b |
| identifier.doi.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11547 |
| inst_facet_str | urn:organizationAcronym:cp{{{_:::_}}}Cogitatio Press |
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| institution | Cogitatio Press |
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| language | eng |
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| network_name_str | Politics and Governance |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/11547 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:cp |
| person_str_mv | Mello, Fernando Jurado, Ignacio |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Cogitatio Press |
| repo_facet_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:pg{{{_:::_}}}Politics and Governance |
| reponame_str | Politics and Governance |
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| spelling | en-USFollowing the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential ElectionMello, FernandoJurado, Ignaciobacksliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da SilvaCopyright (c) 2026 Fernando Mello, Ignacio Juradohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11547DOIhttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/11547URLHasVersionhttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/11547/5058URLHasVersionhttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/11547/5596URLHasVersionhttps://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11547DOI2026-04-22en-USThis article examines the 2022 Brazilian presidential campaign to explore the dynamic relationship between political alignment and electoral trust. We argue that trust in elections is not solely a function of partisanship but is also influenced by exposure to elite narratives and citizens’ expectations about who will win. Using a five-wave panel survey conducted during the 2022 election in Brazil, we analyze both between-individual differences and within-individual changes in vote intention and trust in Brazil’s electronic voting system. Employing within–between models, we separate stable partisan differences from changes associated with individual-level shifts in political alignment. We show that then-President Jair Bolsonaro’s voters consistently expressed lower trust in the electronic voting system compared to other voters. Yet, among Bolsonaro voters, trust in the electronic voting system was significantly higher for those who expected him to win and lower for those who expected him to lose. Critically, exploiting within-person variation, we show that switching vote preference toward Bolsonaro is associated with declines in trust. These findings suggest that elite cues and outcome expectations interact to shape electoral trust.Cogitatio Pressapplication/pdfen-USPolitics and Governance; Vol 14 (2026): Causes and Consequences of Confidence in Democratic Elections2183-246310.17645/pag.i478engjournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501literatureVoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election Mello, Fernando backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| status | SINGLETON |
| status_str | VoR |
| subject.fl_str_mv | backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| title | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| title_full | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| title_fullStr | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| title_full_unstemmed | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| title_short | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| title_sort | Following the Leader Against Democracy? Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election |
| topic | backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| topic_facet | backsliding; Brazil; election; electoral trust; electronic ballot; elite cues; Jair Bolsonaro; Lula da Silva |
| url | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11547 |
| visible | 1 |