Publicação
Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election
| Resumo: | The 2018 election in Italy produced a highly fragmented outcome with a “tripolar” structure: mainstream forces were sharply weakened, while the Five Star Movement (left-wing) and The League (right-wing), two populist parties with different political agendas but similar anti-establishment postures, captured unprecedented levels of support. This configuration highlights a theoretical tension regarding disaffection towards the voting mechanism: similar underlying grievances can lead to either abstention or support for right- and left-wing populist parties. In 2018, in Italy, these three responses were available simultaneously, a unique case. This article examines the determinants of abstention and populist voting in Italy’s 2018 general election. Using provincial (NUTS 3) data from 2008, 2013, and 2018, we employ a combination of factor and regression analysis to describe the underlying causes of populist voting and abstention. Our results show that abstention was higher in provinces characterized by crime, insecurity, and weak governance, while populist parties thrived in economically fragile areas. This contrasts with the stronger performance of mainstream parties in more prosperous regions. Overall, our findings suggest that both abstention and populist voting reflect enduring socio-territorial inequalities and institutional fragility. This implies that reducing regional disparities and strengthening state capacity are key conditions for addressing persistent patterns of electoral disengagement. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia |
| Outros Autores: | Di Maio, Giorgio; Gilli, Mario |
| Assunto: | abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | unknown |
| Instituição associada: | Cogitatio Press |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Politics and Governance |
| _version_ | 1869072356760092672 |
|---|---|
| author | Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia |
| author2 | Di Maio, Giorgio Gilli, Mario |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia Di Maio, Giorgio Gilli, Mario |
| author_role | author |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Di Maio, Giorgio\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Gilli, Mario\"}] |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia Di Maio, Giorgio Gilli, Mario |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia Di Maio, Giorgio Gilli, Mario |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11674 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Cogitatio Press |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.rights.rights.copyright.fl_str_mv | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | Politics and Governance; Vol 14 (2026): Causes and Consequences of Confidence in Democratic Elections 2183-2463 10.17645/pag.i478 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | The 2018 election in Italy produced a highly fragmented outcome with a “tripolar” structure: mainstream forces were sharply weakened, while the Five Star Movement (left-wing) and The League (right-wing), two populist parties with different political agendas but similar anti-establishment postures, captured unprecedented levels of support. This configuration highlights a theoretical tension regarding disaffection towards the voting mechanism: similar underlying grievances can lead to either abstention or support for right- and left-wing populist parties. In 2018, in Italy, these three responses were available simultaneously, a unique case. This article examines the determinants of abstention and populist voting in Italy’s 2018 general election. Using provincial (NUTS 3) data from 2008, 2013, and 2018, we employ a combination of factor and regression analysis to describe the underlying causes of populist voting and abstention. Our results show that abstention was higher in provinces characterized by crime, insecurity, and weak governance, while populist parties thrived in economically fragile areas. This contrasts with the stronger performance of mainstream parties in more prosperous regions. Overall, our findings suggest that both abstention and populist voting reflect enduring socio-territorial inequalities and institutional fragility. This implies that reducing regional disparities and strengthening state capacity are key conditions for addressing persistent patterns of electoral disengagement. |
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| format | article |
| id | pg_d0ea1004271fe8ea398eecf8fbd8bc1a |
| identifier.doi.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11674 |
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| person_str_mv | Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia Di Maio, Giorgio Gilli, Mario |
| publishDate | 2026 |
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| spelling | en-USAbstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 ElectionDalla Pellegrina, LuciaDi Maio, GiorgioGilli, Marioabstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnoutCopyright (c) 2026 Lucia Dalla Pelegrina, Giorgio Di Maio, Mario Gillihttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11674DOIhttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/11674URLHasVersionhttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/11674/5087URLHasVersionhttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/11674/5809URLHasVersionhttps://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11674DOI2026-05-12en-USThe 2018 election in Italy produced a highly fragmented outcome with a “tripolar” structure: mainstream forces were sharply weakened, while the Five Star Movement (left-wing) and The League (right-wing), two populist parties with different political agendas but similar anti-establishment postures, captured unprecedented levels of support. This configuration highlights a theoretical tension regarding disaffection towards the voting mechanism: similar underlying grievances can lead to either abstention or support for right- and left-wing populist parties. In 2018, in Italy, these three responses were available simultaneously, a unique case. This article examines the determinants of abstention and populist voting in Italy’s 2018 general election. Using provincial (NUTS 3) data from 2008, 2013, and 2018, we employ a combination of factor and regression analysis to describe the underlying causes of populist voting and abstention. Our results show that abstention was higher in provinces characterized by crime, insecurity, and weak governance, while populist parties thrived in economically fragile areas. This contrasts with the stronger performance of mainstream parties in more prosperous regions. Overall, our findings suggest that both abstention and populist voting reflect enduring socio-territorial inequalities and institutional fragility. This implies that reducing regional disparities and strengthening state capacity are key conditions for addressing persistent patterns of electoral disengagement.Cogitatio Pressapplication/pdfen-USPolitics and Governance; Vol 14 (2026): Causes and Consequences of Confidence in Democratic Elections2183-246310.17645/pag.i478engjournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501literatureVoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election Dalla Pellegrina, Lucia abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| status | SINGLETON |
| status_str | VoR |
| subject.fl_str_mv | abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| title | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| title_full | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| title_fullStr | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| title_full_unstemmed | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| title_short | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| title_sort | Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election |
| topic | abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| topic_facet | abstention; Italy; political disaffection; populism; populist voting; territorial inequalities; voter turnout |
| url | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.11674 |
| visible | 1 |