Publicação
S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024
| Resumo: | Misuse of statistical significance continues to be prevalent in science. The absence of intuitive explanations of this concept often leads researchers to incorrect conclusions. For this reason, some statisticians suggest adopting S-values (surprisals) instead of P-values, as they relate the statistical relevance of an event to the number of consecutive heads when flipping an unbiased coin. This paper introduces the concept of surprisal intervals (S-intervals) as extensions of confidence/compatibility intervals. The proposed approach imposes the assessment of outcomes in terms of more and less surprising than some values, instead of statistically significant and statistically non-significant. Moreover, a novel methodology for presenting multiple consecutive S-intervals (or compatibility intervals as well) in order to evaluate the variation in surprise (or compatibility) with various target hypotheses is discussed. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Rovetta, Alessandro |
| Outros Autores: | Alessandro Rovetta |
| Assunto: | confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | unknown |
| Instituição associada: | Instituto Nacional de Estatística |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | REVSTAT-Statistical Journal |
| _version_ | 1869319184623599616 |
|---|---|
| author | Rovetta, Alessandro |
| author2 | Alessandro Rovetta |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Rovetta, Alessandro Alessandro Rovetta |
| author_role | author |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Rovetta, Alessandro\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Alessandro Rovetta\"}] |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Rovetta, Alessandro Alessandro Rovetta |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Rovetta, Alessandro Alessandro Rovetta |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v23i4.669 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Statistics Portugal |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.rights.rights.copyright.fl_str_mv | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; Vol. 23 No. 4 (2025): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 491-502 REVSTAT; Vol. 23 N.º 4 (2025): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 491-502 2183-0371 1645-6726 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | Misuse of statistical significance continues to be prevalent in science. The absence of intuitive explanations of this concept often leads researchers to incorrect conclusions. For this reason, some statisticians suggest adopting S-values (surprisals) instead of P-values, as they relate the statistical relevance of an event to the number of consecutive heads when flipping an unbiased coin. This paper introduces the concept of surprisal intervals (S-intervals) as extensions of confidence/compatibility intervals. The proposed approach imposes the assessment of outcomes in terms of more and less surprising than some values, instead of statistically significant and statistically non-significant. Moreover, a novel methodology for presenting multiple consecutive S-intervals (or compatibility intervals as well) in order to evaluate the variation in surprise (or compatibility) with various target hypotheses is discussed. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | unknown |
| format | article |
| id | revstat_8fb5fdf26a03ae4b697b136bd33c8bee |
| identifier.doi.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v23i4.669 |
| inst_facet_str | urn:organizationAcronym:revstat-statistical journal{{{_:::_}}}Instituto Nacional de Estatística |
| instacron_str | REVSTAT-Statistical Journal |
| institution | Instituto Nacional de Estatística |
| instname_str | Instituto Nacional de Estatística |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | revstat |
| network_name_str | REVSTAT-Statistical Journal |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:revstat:article/669 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:revstat-statistical journal |
| person_str_mv | Rovetta, Alessandro Alessandro Rovetta |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Statistics Portugal |
| repo_facet_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:revstat{{{_:::_}}}REVSTAT-Statistical Journal |
| reponame_str | REVSTAT-Statistical Journal |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:revstat |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:revstat |
| spelling | enS-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024Rovetta, AlessandroAlessandro Rovettaconfidence intervalsepidemiologyhypothesis testingpublic healthsignificancesurprisalCopyright (c) 2025 REVSTAT-Statistical Journalhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v23i4.669DOIhttps://revstat.ine.pt/index.php/REVSTAT/article/view/669URLHasVersionhttps://revstat.ine.pt/index.php/REVSTAT/article/view/669/819URLHasVersionhttps://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v23i4.669DOI2025-12-19enMisuse of statistical significance continues to be prevalent in science. The absence of intuitive explanations of this concept often leads researchers to incorrect conclusions. For this reason, some statisticians suggest adopting S-values (surprisals) instead of P-values, as they relate the statistical relevance of an event to the number of consecutive heads when flipping an unbiased coin. This paper introduces the concept of surprisal intervals (S-intervals) as extensions of confidence/compatibility intervals. The proposed approach imposes the assessment of outcomes in terms of more and less surprising than some values, instead of statistically significant and statistically non-significant. Moreover, a novel methodology for presenting multiple consecutive S-intervals (or compatibility intervals as well) in order to evaluate the variation in surprise (or compatibility) with various target hypotheses is discussed.Statistics Portugalapplication/pdfenREVSTAT-Statistical Journal; Vol. 23 No. 4 (2025): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 491-502pt-PTREVSTAT; Vol. 23 N.º 4 (2025): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal; 491-5022183-03711645-6726engjournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501literatureVoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 Rovetta, Alessandro confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| status | SINGLETON |
| status_str | VoR |
| subject.fl_str_mv | confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| title | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| title_full | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| title_fullStr | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| title_full_unstemmed | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| title_short | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| title_sort | S-values and Surprisal intervals to Replace P-values and Confidence Intervals: Accepted - January 2024 |
| topic | confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| topic_facet | confidence intervals epidemiology hypothesis testing public health significance surprisal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.57805/revstat.v23i4.669 |
| visible | 1 |