Publicação
Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept
| Resumo: | Background: The UN Replacement Migration report (2000) had a significant impact in academic and civil society. Its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. The volume of migrants required to prevent population decline and sustain the working-age population was not particularly high, but the vast number of migrants needed to maintain the potential support ratio was highlighted as an unrealistic goal. Objective: In this paper the UN exercise is revisited and updated by deploying the concept of prospective age to overcome a strict chronological definition of the working-age population. The replacement migration approach is developed from a new European perspective, the temporal series is extended for an additional decade, and alternative operative age-group definitions are compared by projecting replacement migration estimations according to both classic (conventional) and dynamic (prospective) age limits. Conclusions: The key conclusions of the original UN publication are reasserted. In many countries the replacement migration volumes needed to sustain the decline in total population and working-age population are of an order of magnitude similar to recent observed migration. However, even under the prospective-age approach the halt of the ageing process – expressed as the maintenance of the current potential support ratio – remains an unrealistic target. Contribution: We propose the deployment of the prospective-age concept to define dynamic age limits in the definition of working-age population. Because the prospective-age concept is flexible it will be possible to explore other dimensions from this perspective in the future, increasing the analytical potential of replacement migration estimations as a valuable contribution to the demographic ageing debate |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Craveiro, Daniela |
| Outros Autores: | Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de; Gomes, Maria Cristina; Malheiros, Jorge; Moreira, Maria João Guardado; Peixoto, João |
| Assunto: | Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| Ano: | 2019 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| _version_ | 1868350612523974656 |
|---|---|
| author | Craveiro, Daniela |
| author2 | Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de Gomes, Maria Cristina Malheiros, Jorge Moreira, Maria João Guardado Peixoto, João |
| author2_role | author author author author author |
| author_facet | Craveiro, Daniela Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de Gomes, Maria Cristina Malheiros, Jorge Moreira, Maria João Guardado Peixoto, João |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Craveiro, Daniela\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Gomes, Maria Cristina\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Malheiros, Jorge\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Moreira, Maria João Guardado\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0003-1719-4131\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Peixoto, João\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Craveiro, Daniela Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de Gomes, Maria Cristina Malheiros, Jorge Moreira, Maria João Guardado Peixoto, João |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2019-10-28T10:23:15Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2019-10-28T10:23:15Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Craveiro, Daniela Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de Gomes, Maria Cristina Malheiros, Jorge Moreira, Maria João Guardado Peixoto, João |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2019-10-28T10:23:15Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2019-10-28T10:23:15Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/6732 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| dc.rights.cclincense.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | Background: The UN Replacement Migration report (2000) had a significant impact in academic and civil society. Its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. The volume of migrants required to prevent population decline and sustain the working-age population was not particularly high, but the vast number of migrants needed to maintain the potential support ratio was highlighted as an unrealistic goal. Objective: In this paper the UN exercise is revisited and updated by deploying the concept of prospective age to overcome a strict chronological definition of the working-age population. The replacement migration approach is developed from a new European perspective, the temporal series is extended for an additional decade, and alternative operative age-group definitions are compared by projecting replacement migration estimations according to both classic (conventional) and dynamic (prospective) age limits. Conclusions: The key conclusions of the original UN publication are reasserted. In many countries the replacement migration volumes needed to sustain the decline in total population and working-age population are of an order of magnitude similar to recent observed migration. However, even under the prospective-age approach the halt of the ageing process – expressed as the maintenance of the current potential support ratio – remains an unrealistic target. Contribution: We propose the deployment of the prospective-age concept to define dynamic age limits in the definition of working-age population. Because the prospective-age concept is flexible it will be possible to explore other dimensions from this perspective in the future, increasing the analytical potential of replacement migration estimations as a valuable contribution to the demographic ageing debate |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ipcb.pt/bitstreams/4aaa568c-9726-4255-8618-2a78f5b1d4e3/download |
| id | ripcb_a07e8ebc4e9c9b98672bfe005e2f11f4 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/6732 |
| instacron_str | ipcb |
| institution | Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| instname_str | Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ripcb |
| network_name_str | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.ipcb.pt:10400.11/6732 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ipcb |
| person_str_mv | Craveiro, Daniela Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de Gomes, Maria Cristina Malheiros, Jorge Moreira, Maria João Guardado Moreira, Maria João Guardado https://www.ciencia-id.pt/8E19-E362-D082 8E19-E362-D082 http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1719-4131 0000-0003-1719-4131 Peixoto, João |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| reponame_str | Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ripcb |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ripcb |
| spelling | engMax Planck Institute for Demographic Researchpt_PTBackground: The UN Replacement Migration report (2000) had a significant impact in academic and civil society. Its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. The volume of migrants required to prevent population decline and sustain the working-age population was not particularly high, but the vast number of migrants needed to maintain the potential support ratio was highlighted as an unrealistic goal. Objective: In this paper the UN exercise is revisited and updated by deploying the concept of prospective age to overcome a strict chronological definition of the working-age population. The replacement migration approach is developed from a new European perspective, the temporal series is extended for an additional decade, and alternative operative age-group definitions are compared by projecting replacement migration estimations according to both classic (conventional) and dynamic (prospective) age limits. Conclusions: The key conclusions of the original UN publication are reasserted. In many countries the replacement migration volumes needed to sustain the decline in total population and working-age population are of an order of magnitude similar to recent observed migration. However, even under the prospective-age approach the halt of the ageing process – expressed as the maintenance of the current potential support ratio – remains an unrealistic target. Contribution: We propose the deployment of the prospective-age concept to define dynamic age limits in the definition of working-age population. Because the prospective-age concept is flexible it will be possible to explore other dimensions from this perspective in the future, increasing the analytical potential of replacement migration estimations as a valuable contribution to the demographic ageing debateapplication/pdfpt_PTBack to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age conceptCraveiro, DanielaOliveira, Isabel Tiago deGomes, Maria CristinaMalheiros, JorgePersonalMoreira, Maria João GuardadoDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/8cb2fdca-fda7-45b6-b512-2b31e0bc5118DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/8cb2fdca-fda7-45b6-b512-2b31e0bc5118da Silva Guardado MoreiraMaria JoãoCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt8E19-E362-D082ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0003-1719-4131Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com35336797100Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com36728048600Peixoto, JoãoHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Brancoe-mailmailto:repositorio@ipcb.ptrepositorio@ipcb.ptDOIIsPartOf10.4054/DemRes.2019.40.452019-10-28T10:23:15Z20192019-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/6732http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessReplacementMigrationAgeingProspective ageEurope850981 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal article2019http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ipcb.pt/bitstreams/4aaa568c-9726-4255-8618-2a78f5b1d4e3/downloadDemographic Research4013231344Rostock, Germany |
| spellingShingle | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept Craveiro, Daniela Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| title | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| title_full | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| title_fullStr | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| title_full_unstemmed | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| title_short | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| title_sort | Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept |
| topic | Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| topic_facet | Replacement Migration Ageing Prospective age Europe |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/6732 |
| visible | 1 |