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Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

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Resumo:In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.
Autores principais:Omira, Rachid
Outros Autores:Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana; Matias, Luís
Assunto:Tsunami Probabilistic approach NE Atlantic
Ano:2015
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:artigo
Tipo de acesso:acesso restrito
Instituição associada:Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa

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