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The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles

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Resumo:To show that the traditional econometric approach is not able to deal with deterministic chaos, we use an extension of Goodwin.s growth cycle model to generate arti.cial data for output. An EGARCH model is estimated to describe the data generation process. Although using some traditional econometric tests no evidence of misspeci.- cation is found the estimated process is qualitatively wrong: it is dynamically stable when the true process is unstable. We present a speci.c econometric procedure de- veloped to deal with deterministic chaos: the BDS statistics. Also an explanation for the little evidence of deterministic chaos in aggregated macroeconomic time series is suggested.
Autores principais:Conraria, Luís Aguiar
Ano:2001
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:working paper
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade do Minho
Idioma:inglês
Origem:RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
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author Conraria, Luís Aguiar
author_facet Conraria, Luís Aguiar
author_role author
contributor_name_str_mv RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
country_str PT
creators_json_txt [{\"Person.name\":\"Conraria, Luís Aguiar\"}]
datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv Conraria, Luís Aguiar
datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z
datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv 2005-05-03T09:02:39Z
datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv 2005-05-03T09:02:39Z
datacite.rights.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Conraria, Luís Aguiar
dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2005-05-03T09:02:39Z
dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv 2005-05-03T09:02:39Z
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/1822/1376
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.title.fl_str_mv The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042
description To show that the traditional econometric approach is not able to deal with deterministic chaos, we use an extension of Goodwin.s growth cycle model to generate arti.cial data for output. An EGARCH model is estimated to describe the data generation process. Although using some traditional econometric tests no evidence of misspeci.- cation is found the estimated process is qualitatively wrong: it is dynamically stable when the true process is unstable. We present a speci.c econometric procedure de- veloped to deal with deterministic chaos: the BDS statistics. Also an explanation for the little evidence of deterministic chaos in aggregated macroeconomic time series is suggested.
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organization_str_mv urn:organizationAcronym:repositorium
person_str_mv Conraria, Luís Aguiar
publishDate 2001
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
reponame_str RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho
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spelling engUniversidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)engTo show that the traditional econometric approach is not able to deal with deterministic chaos, we use an extension of Goodwin.s growth cycle model to generate arti.cial data for output. An EGARCH model is estimated to describe the data generation process. Although using some traditional econometric tests no evidence of misspeci.- cation is found the estimated process is qualitatively wrong: it is dynamically stable when the true process is unstable. We present a speci.c econometric procedure de- veloped to deal with deterministic chaos: the BDS statistics. Also an explanation for the little evidence of deterministic chaos in aggregated macroeconomic time series is suggested.application/pdfengThe adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cyclesConraria, Luís AguiarHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositóriUM - Universidade do Minhoe-mailmailto:repositorium@usdb.uminho.ptrepositorium@usdb.uminho.pt2005-05-03T09:02:39Z20012001-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttps://hdl.handle.net/1822/1376http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open access580184 bytesother research producthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042working paperhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorium.uminho.pt/bitstreams/98e9bb76-674a-4645-9664-9eb5a97063b1/download
spellingShingle The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
Conraria, Luís Aguiar
status SINGLETON
title The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
title_full The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
title_fullStr The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
title_full_unstemmed The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
title_short The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
title_sort The adequacy of the traditional econometric approach to nonlinear cycles
url https://hdl.handle.net/1822/1376
visible 1