Publicação

Comparing univariate techniques for tender price index forecasting: Box-Jenkins and neural network model

Detalhes bibliográficos
Resumo:	The poor performance of projects is a recurring event in the construction sector. Information gleaned from literature shows that uncertainty in project cost is one of the significant causes of this problem. Reliable forecast of construction cost is useful in mitigating the adverse effect of its fluctuation, however the availability of data for the development of multivariate models for construction cost forecasting remains a challenge. The study seeks to investigate the reliability of using univariate models for tender price index forecasting. Box-Jenkins and neural network are the modelling techniques applied in this study. The results show that the neural network model outperforms the Box- Jenkins model, in terms of accuracy. In addition, the neural network model provides a reliable forecast of tender price index over a period of 12 quarters ahead. The limitations of using the univariate models are elaborated. The developed neural network model can be used by stakeholders as a tool for predicting the movements in tender price index. In addition, the univariate models developed in the present study are particularly useful in countries where limited data reduces the possibility of applying multivariate models.
Autores principais:	Oshodi, Olalekan Shamsideen
Outros Autores:	Ejohwomu, Obuks Augustine; Famakin, Ibukun Oluwadara; Cortez, Paulo
Assunto:	Box-Jenkins Forecast Model Neural network Tender price index
Ano:	2017
País:	Portugal
Tipo de documento:	artigo
Tipo de acesso:	acesso aberto
Instituição associada:	Universidade do Minho
Idioma:	inglês
Origem:	RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho

Descrição
Resumo:	The poor performance of projects is a recurring event in the construction sector. Information gleaned from literature shows that uncertainty in project cost is one of the significant causes of this problem. Reliable forecast of construction cost is useful in mitigating the adverse effect of its fluctuation, however the availability of data for the development of multivariate models for construction cost forecasting remains a challenge. The study seeks to investigate the reliability of using univariate models for tender price index forecasting. Box-Jenkins and neural network are the modelling techniques applied in this study. The results show that the neural network model outperforms the Box- Jenkins model, in terms of accuracy. In addition, the neural network model provides a reliable forecast of tender price index over a period of 12 quarters ahead. The limitations of using the univariate models are elaborated. The developed neural network model can be used by stakeholders as a tool for predicting the movements in tender price index. In addition, the univariate models developed in the present study are particularly useful in countries where limited data reduces the possibility of applying multivariate models.