Publicação
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis
| Resumo: | With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Afonso, António |
| Outros Autores: | Sousa, Ricardo M. |
| Assunto: | B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| Ano: | 2011 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade do Minho |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho |
| _version_ | 1866876278541385728 |
|---|---|
| author | Afonso, António |
| author2 | Sousa, Ricardo M. |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Universidade do Minho |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Afonso, António\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Sousa, Ricardo M.\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Universidade do Minho |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2011-03-25T12:01:18Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2011-03-25T12:01:18Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Universidade do Minho |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2011-03-25T12:01:18Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2011-03-25T12:01:18Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://prod-dspace.uminho.pt/bitstreams/fc220849-0b4c-4e41-80aa-09dc8462a981/download |
| id | rum_ec8f447afb47bdbf95137ae2ff2b0f90 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966 |
| instacron_str | repositorium |
| institution | Universidade do Minho |
| instname_str | Universidade do Minho |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | rum |
| network_name_str | RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorium.uminho.pt:1822/11966 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:repositorium |
| person_str_mv | Afonso, António Sousa, Ricardo M. |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Springer |
| reponame_str | RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:rum |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:rum |
| spelling | engSpringerporWith a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.application/pdfporThe macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysisAfonso, AntónioSousa, Ricardo M.HostingInstitutionOrganizationalUniversidade do Minhoe-mailmailto:repositorium@usdb.uminho.ptrepositorium@usdb.uminho.ptISSNIsPartOf1617-982XDOIIsPartOf10.1007/s10258-011-0071-22011-03-25T12:01:18Z20112011-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttps://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessB-SVARFully simultaneous systemFiscal policyDebt dynamicsPortugal452917 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://prod-dspace.uminho.pt/bitstreams/fc220849-0b4c-4e41-80aa-09dc8462a981/download |
| spellingShingle | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis Afonso, António B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| title | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| title_full | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| title_fullStr | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| title_short | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| title_sort | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in portugal : a bayesian SVAR analysis |
| topic | B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| topic_facet | B-SVAR Fully simultaneous system Fiscal policy Debt dynamics Portugal |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/11966 |
| visible | 1 |