Publicação
The impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock returns: focus on energy and defense sectors
| Resumo: | The impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock returns is analyzed with a particular focus on the energy and defense sectors. Employing an OLS regression framework, the analysis is based on quarterly stock market data from 1994 to 2024, incorporating election outcomes and key control variables (GDP growth, Federal Funds Rates and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index). While the results indicate that market-wide stock returns tend to be higher under Democratic administrations, sectoral results suggest more nuanced dynamics, revealing that election effects on energy and defense returns are conditional on economic uncertainty levels. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Silva, Daniela Cordeiro Ferreira Pires da |
| Assunto: | Presidential elections Stock returns OLS regression Sectoral stock markets |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | The impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock returns is analyzed with a particular focus on the energy and defense sectors. Employing an OLS regression framework, the analysis is based on quarterly stock market data from 1994 to 2024, incorporating election outcomes and key control variables (GDP growth, Federal Funds Rates and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index). While the results indicate that market-wide stock returns tend to be higher under Democratic administrations, sectoral results suggest more nuanced dynamics, revealing that election effects on energy and defense returns are conditional on economic uncertainty levels. |
|---|