Publicação

Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal

Ver documento

Detalhes bibliográficos
Resumo:This work project contributes to the current literature on using Google search queries to predict economic activity. We demonstrate, using the two-step Error-Correction Model (ECM) by Engle and Granger (1987), that specific search queries, also known as Google Trends, are related to house prices in Portugal. For out-of-sample forecasts, our ECM model with the Google Trends variables performed significantly better predicting one year ahead, in which, the Mean Absolute Error was reduced by over 30% compared to our baseline model. Until now, conventional economics has not leveraged this highly accessible digital data in their models, we hope this will change.
Autores principais:Sistovaris, Nicholas
Assunto:Econometrics Housing Google trends Forecasting Error-correction model
Ano:2023
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:dissertação de mestrado
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Institucional da UNL
_version_ 1868984166082674688
author Sistovaris, Nicholas
author_facet Sistovaris, Nicholas
author_role author
contributor_name_str_mv Rodrigues, Paulo Manuel Marques
RUN
country_str PT
creators_json_txt [{\"Person.name\":\"Sistovaris, Nicholas\"}]
datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv Rodrigues, Paulo Manuel Marques
RUN
datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv Sistovaris, Nicholas
datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv 2023-01-13T00:00:00Z
datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-08-03T09:28:40Z
datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv 2023-08-03T09:28:40Z
datacite.rights.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv Econometrics
Housing
Google trends
Forecasting
Error-correction model
datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Rodrigues, Paulo Manuel Marques
RUN
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sistovaris, Nicholas
dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv 2023-01-13T00:00:00Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-08-03T09:28:40Z
dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv 2023-08-03T09:28:40Z
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/156222
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Econometrics
Housing
Google trends
Forecasting
Error-correction model
dc.title.fl_str_mv Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdcc
description This work project contributes to the current literature on using Google search queries to predict economic activity. We demonstrate, using the two-step Error-Correction Model (ECM) by Engle and Granger (1987), that specific search queries, also known as Google Trends, are related to house prices in Portugal. For out-of-sample forecasts, our ECM model with the Google Trends variables performed significantly better predicting one year ahead, in which, the Mean Absolute Error was reduced by over 30% compared to our baseline model. Until now, conventional economics has not leveraged this highly accessible digital data in their models, we hope this will change.
dirty 0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format masterThesis
fulltext.url.fl_str_mv https://run.unl.pt/bitstreams/0096dc27-19f9-4647-a3c7-84f657bd5dac/download
id run_27c6fa0d648d6fd76a030d066b2913f5
identifier.url.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/156222
inst_facet_str urn:organizationAcronym:unl{{{_:::_}}}Universidade Nova de Lisboa
instacron_str unl
institution Universidade Nova de Lisboa
instname_str Universidade Nova de Lisboa
language eng
network_acronym_str run
network_name_str Repositório Institucional da UNL
oai_identifier_str oai:run.unl.pt:10362/156222
organization_str_mv urn:organizationAcronym:unl
person_str_mv Sistovaris, Nicholas
publishDate 2023
repo_facet_str urn:repositoryAcronym:run{{{_:::_}}}Repositório Institucional da UNL
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UNL
repository_id_str urn:repositoryAcronym:run
service_str_mv urn:repositoryAcronym:run
spelling engpt_PTThis work project contributes to the current literature on using Google search queries to predict economic activity. We demonstrate, using the two-step Error-Correction Model (ECM) by Engle and Granger (1987), that specific search queries, also known as Google Trends, are related to house prices in Portugal. For out-of-sample forecasts, our ECM model with the Google Trends variables performed significantly better predicting one year ahead, in which, the Mean Absolute Error was reduced by over 30% compared to our baseline model. Until now, conventional economics has not leveraged this highly accessible digital data in their models, we hope this will change.application/pdfpt_PTLeveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in PortugalSistovaris, NicholasRodrigues, Paulo Manuel MarquesHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRUNe-mailmailto:run@unl.ptrun@unl.ptURNurn:tid:2033126432023-08-03T09:28:40Z2023-01-132022-12-162023-01-13T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/156222http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessEconometricsHousingGoogle trendsForecastingError-correction model1745867 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_bdccmaster thesishttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://run.unl.pt/bitstreams/0096dc27-19f9-4647-a3c7-84f657bd5dac/download
spellingShingle Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
Sistovaris, Nicholas
Econometrics
Housing
Google trends
Forecasting
Error-correction model
status SINGLETON
subject.fl_str_mv Econometrics
Housing
Google trends
Forecasting
Error-correction model
title Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
title_full Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
title_fullStr Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
title_short Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
title_sort Leveraging google search queries to help predict house prices in Portugal
topic Econometrics
Housing
Google trends
Forecasting
Error-correction model
topic_facet Econometrics
Housing
Google trends
Forecasting
Error-correction model
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/156222
visible 1