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The effect of ECB forward guidance on the Euro Area yield curve

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Resumo:This paper focuses on the instantaneous and persistent impacts of ECB forward guidance on the euro area term structure of interest rates. A high-frequency event-study method is employed to uncover the response of euro OIS rates to forward guidance through an ARCH model and local projections. Results indicate forward guidance lowers the term structure across all maturities, with a stronger impact on longer horizons. This effect proves to be persistent. Robustness to including ECB and private information sets suggests ECB forward guidance is interpreted as a stance on future monetary policy, rather than a signal of the macroeconomic outlook.
Autores principais:Duarte, Tomás Falua
Assunto:Term structure of interest rates Unconventional monetary policy Forward guidance High-frequency Persistence
Ano:2025
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:dissertação de mestrado
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Institucional da UNL

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