Publicação
The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018
| Resumo: | Available research has extensively examined the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-weather regime in Portugal, but a comprehensive climatology of extreme wildfires is still under development. This study calls for different strategies and scales of analysis aiming to describe the relationships between medium and low troposphere weather conditions and severe fire behaviour in mainland Portugal, between 1980 and 2018. In particular, critical fire-weather patterns and thresholds that can contribute to operational and forecasting know-how in short and medium time ranges are presented. We updated the general trends in the fire regime with a new, longer daily burned area series and developed a method that identifies Extreme Wildfire Periods (EWP) that form the basis for climate analysis. Synoptic analysis using Circulation Weather Types (CWT) showed that the northeasterly and easterly directional flows are significantly associated with EWP and produce the most severe fire-weather conditions. The four main CWT related to extreme fire are driven from anticyclones over the eastern Atlantic between the Azores and the British Isles. However, severe situations can also be regulated by CWT with marginal presence in both summer and EWP: low systems located to the west and northwest of Iberia carrying air masses from the south quadrant are related to catastrophic events. Regarding the antecedent climate, the results indicate that the coincident meteorological drought, whether weak or intense, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an EWP. An increasing relevance of water stress for shorter intervals preceding EWP, in the order of days and weeks, is apparent. Following these results, fine dead fuel moisture thresholds related to transitions in fire behaviour in Portuguese landscapes are computed using a promising predictive moisture content model. Finally, the different methods used are summoned for the detailed analysis of an EWP starting under unusual synoptic circulation. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Carmo, Miguel |
| Outros Autores: | Ferreira, João P.; Mendes, Manuel T.; Silva, Álvaro; Silva, Pedro Cristiano; Alves, Daniela; Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte; Novo, Ilda; Viegas, Domingos Xavier |
| Assunto: | Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| Ano: | 2022 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| _version_ | 1868413739995234304 |
|---|---|
| author | Carmo, Miguel |
| author2 | Ferreira, João P. Mendes, Manuel T. Silva, Álvaro Silva, Pedro Cristiano Alves, Daniela Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte Novo, Ilda Viegas, Domingos Xavier |
| author2_role | author author author author author author author author |
| author_facet | Carmo, Miguel Ferreira, João P. Mendes, Manuel T. Silva, Álvaro Silva, Pedro Cristiano Alves, Daniela Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte Novo, Ilda Viegas, Domingos Xavier |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Instituto de História Contemporânea (IHC) Royal Meteorological Society RUN |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Carmo, Miguel\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Ferreira, João P.\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Mendes, Manuel T.\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Silva, Álvaro\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Silva, Pedro Cristiano\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Alves, Daniela\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Novo, Ilda\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Viegas, Domingos Xavier\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Instituto de História Contemporânea (IHC) Royal Meteorological Society RUN |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Carmo, Miguel Ferreira, João P. Mendes, Manuel T. Silva, Álvaro Silva, Pedro Cristiano Alves, Daniela Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte Novo, Ilda Viegas, Domingos Xavier |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2021-12-14T23:46:40Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2021-12-14T23:46:40Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 Contributions to forecasting and preparedness |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Instituto de História Contemporânea (IHC) Royal Meteorological Society RUN |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Carmo, Miguel Ferreira, João P. Mendes, Manuel T. Silva, Álvaro Silva, Pedro Cristiano Alves, Daniela Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte Novo, Ilda Viegas, Domingos Xavier |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2021-12-14T23:46:40Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2021-12-14T23:46:40Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/129227 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 Contributions to forecasting and preparedness |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | Available research has extensively examined the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-weather regime in Portugal, but a comprehensive climatology of extreme wildfires is still under development. This study calls for different strategies and scales of analysis aiming to describe the relationships between medium and low troposphere weather conditions and severe fire behaviour in mainland Portugal, between 1980 and 2018. In particular, critical fire-weather patterns and thresholds that can contribute to operational and forecasting know-how in short and medium time ranges are presented. We updated the general trends in the fire regime with a new, longer daily burned area series and developed a method that identifies Extreme Wildfire Periods (EWP) that form the basis for climate analysis. Synoptic analysis using Circulation Weather Types (CWT) showed that the northeasterly and easterly directional flows are significantly associated with EWP and produce the most severe fire-weather conditions. The four main CWT related to extreme fire are driven from anticyclones over the eastern Atlantic between the Azores and the British Isles. However, severe situations can also be regulated by CWT with marginal presence in both summer and EWP: low systems located to the west and northwest of Iberia carrying air masses from the south quadrant are related to catastrophic events. Regarding the antecedent climate, the results indicate that the coincident meteorological drought, whether weak or intense, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an EWP. An increasing relevance of water stress for shorter intervals preceding EWP, in the order of days and weeks, is apparent. Following these results, fine dead fuel moisture thresholds related to transitions in fire behaviour in Portuguese landscapes are computed using a promising predictive moisture content model. Finally, the different methods used are summoned for the detailed analysis of an EWP starting under unusual synoptic circulation. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://run.unl.pt/bitstreams/38fd1e10-f1df-4943-8aff-3a50dae33adc/download |
| id | run_8f2a4ebb5bc522db7375ffccc916e04b |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/129227 |
| instacron_str | unl |
| institution | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| instname_str | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | run |
| network_name_str | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:run.unl.pt:10362/129227 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:unl |
| person_str_mv | Carmo, Miguel Ferreira, João P. Mendes, Manuel T. Silva, Álvaro Silva, Pedro Cristiano Alves, Daniela Reis, Luís Carlos Duarte Novo, Ilda Viegas, Domingos Xavier |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| reponame_str | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:run |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:run |
| spelling | engenAvailable research has extensively examined the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-weather regime in Portugal, but a comprehensive climatology of extreme wildfires is still under development. This study calls for different strategies and scales of analysis aiming to describe the relationships between medium and low troposphere weather conditions and severe fire behaviour in mainland Portugal, between 1980 and 2018. In particular, critical fire-weather patterns and thresholds that can contribute to operational and forecasting know-how in short and medium time ranges are presented. We updated the general trends in the fire regime with a new, longer daily burned area series and developed a method that identifies Extreme Wildfire Periods (EWP) that form the basis for climate analysis. Synoptic analysis using Circulation Weather Types (CWT) showed that the northeasterly and easterly directional flows are significantly associated with EWP and produce the most severe fire-weather conditions. The four main CWT related to extreme fire are driven from anticyclones over the eastern Atlantic between the Azores and the British Isles. However, severe situations can also be regulated by CWT with marginal presence in both summer and EWP: low systems located to the west and northwest of Iberia carrying air masses from the south quadrant are related to catastrophic events. Regarding the antecedent climate, the results indicate that the coincident meteorological drought, whether weak or intense, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an EWP. An increasing relevance of water stress for shorter intervals preceding EWP, in the order of days and weeks, is apparent. Following these results, fine dead fuel moisture thresholds related to transitions in fire behaviour in Portuguese landscapes are computed using a promising predictive moisture content model. Finally, the different methods used are summoned for the detailed analysis of an EWP starting under unusual synoptic circulation.application/pdfenThe climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018SubtitleenContributions to forecasting and preparednessCarmo, MiguelFerreira, João P.Mendes, Manuel T.Silva, ÁlvaroSilva, Pedro CristianoAlves, DanielaReis, Luís Carlos DuarteNovo, IldaViegas, Domingos XavierInstituto de História Contemporânea (IHC)Royal Meteorological SocietyHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRUNe-mailmailto:run@unl.ptrun@unl.ptISSNIsPartOf0899-8418URNIsPartOfPURE: 34927641URNIsPartOfPURE UUID: 4851dd0d-3fc2-445f-86c8-15f14beadeecURNIsPartOfWOS: 000710315700001URNIsPartOfScopus: 85117787441DOIIsPartOf10.1002/joc.74112021-12-14T23:46:40Z20222022-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/129227http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessCoincident droughtDead fuel moisture thresholdsExtreme wildfire periodsFire-prone weather typesWestern IberiaWildfires climatologySDG 13 - Climate Action3970777 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://run.unl.pt/bitstreams/38fd1e10-f1df-4943-8aff-3a50dae33adc/download |
| spellingShingle | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 Carmo, Miguel Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| title | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 |
| title_full | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 |
| title_fullStr | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 |
| title_short | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 |
| title_sort | The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980-2018 |
| topic | Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| topic_facet | Coincident drought Dead fuel moisture thresholds Extreme wildfire periods Fire-prone weather types Western Iberia Wildfires climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/129227 |
| visible | 1 |