Publicação
Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
| Resumo: | The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Oliveira, Sandra |
| Outros Autores: | Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, César |
| Assunto: | General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| Ano: | 2021 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| _version_ | 1868983897910411264 |
|---|---|
| author | Oliveira, Sandra |
| author2 | Rocha, Jorge Sousa, Carla A. Capinha, César |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Oliveira, Sandra Rocha, Jorge Sousa, Carla A. Capinha, César |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT) Global Health and Tropical Medicine (GHTM) Vector borne diseases and pathogens (VBD) Nature Publishing Group RUN |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Oliveira, Sandra\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Rocha, Jorge\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Sousa, Carla A.\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Capinha, César\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT) Global Health and Tropical Medicine (GHTM) Vector borne diseases and pathogens (VBD) Nature Publishing Group RUN |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Oliveira, Sandra Rocha, Jorge Sousa, Carla A. Capinha, César |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2022-01-12T04:10:00Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2022-01-12T04:10:00Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT) Global Health and Tropical Medicine (GHTM) Vector borne diseases and pathogens (VBD) Nature Publishing Group RUN |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Oliveira, Sandra Rocha, Jorge Sousa, Carla A. Capinha, César |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2022-01-12T04:10:00Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2022-01-12T04:10:00Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/130686 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://run.unl.pt/bitstreams/dfefd37d-e6a5-4b39-b941-1c6817140340/download |
| id | run_c4117e2ed400fc991ffd40c07fa8a7d9 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/130686 |
| inst_facet_str | urn:organizationAcronym:unl{{{_:::_}}}Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| instacron_str | unl |
| institution | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| instname_str | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | run |
| network_name_str | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:run.unl.pt:10362/130686 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:unl |
| person_str_mv | Oliveira, Sandra Rocha, Jorge Sousa, Carla A. Capinha, César |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| repo_facet_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:run{{{_:::_}}}Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| reponame_str | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:run |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:run |
| spelling | engenThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.application/pdfenWide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution modelsOliveira, SandraRocha, JorgeSousa, Carla A.Capinha, CésarInstituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT)Global Health and Tropical Medicine (GHTM)Vector borne diseases and pathogens (VBD)Nature Publishing GroupHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRUNe-mailmailto:run@unl.ptrun@unl.ptISSNIsPartOf2045-2322URNIsPartOfPURE: 33049928URNIsPartOfPURE UUID: 5a0b0e7a-1c3e-4952-8ff1-99bcf13596e3URNIsPartOfScopus: 85105582065URNIsPartOfPubMed: 33972597DOIIsPartOf10.1038/s41598-021-89096-52022-01-12T04:10:00Z2021-122021-12-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/130686http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessGeneralSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingSDG 13 - Climate Action2238405 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://run.unl.pt/bitstreams/dfefd37d-e6a5-4b39-b941-1c6817140340/download |
| spellingShingle | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models Oliveira, Sandra General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| title | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| title_full | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| title_fullStr | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| title_short | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| title_sort | Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models |
| topic | General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| topic_facet | General SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being SDG 13 - Climate Action |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/130686 |
| visible | 1 |