Publicação
Tuned for growth: a valuation analysis of universal music group
| Resumo: | This report is part of a joint equity research project that estimates Universal Music Group's (UMG) intrinsic value and provides an investment recommendation. The analysis uses standard valuation techniques, such as sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), and Dividend Discount Model (DDM), to evaluate UMG's business model, industry competitors, and financial performance. When assessing long-term value creation, special attention is given to risk assessment, cost of capital estimation, and ESG factors. Based on UMG's strong cash-flow generation and asset-light digital business model, the valuation yields a target share price of €53.16 as of September 8, 2025, indicating a STRONG BUY recommendation and a significant upside relative to the current share price of €24.55. |
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| Autores principais: | Oliveira, Ana Rita Pereira de |
| Assunto: | Company valuation Corporate finance Music entertainment industry Universal music group |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This report is part of a joint equity research project that estimates Universal Music Group's (UMG) intrinsic value and provides an investment recommendation. The analysis uses standard valuation techniques, such as sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), and Dividend Discount Model (DDM), to evaluate UMG's business model, industry competitors, and financial performance. When assessing long-term value creation, special attention is given to risk assessment, cost of capital estimation, and ESG factors. Based on UMG's strong cash-flow generation and asset-light digital business model, the valuation yields a target share price of €53.16 as of September 8, 2025, indicating a STRONG BUY recommendation and a significant upside relative to the current share price of €24.55. |
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