Publicação
Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market
| Resumo: | This paper takes search intensity for stock tickers in Google (SVI) as a direct measure of retail investor attention and assesses whether it holds predictive power over short-term market outcomes. In a sample of the most representative US stocks, during the period 2005 – 2008, I provide evidence that (1) surges of investor attention forecast higher stock liquidity and volatility; (2) depending severely on what is considered an abnormal level of SVI, retail investor attention can also be priced; and (3) SVI does not relate to firm-specific features, such as size and value. Furthermore, I extend the investigation to the aggregate market level, finding that investor attention to the market index predicts greater market liquidity, volatility and return. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Sàágua, João Guilherme Martins Borges |
| Assunto: | Investor attention Search data Stock market predictability Noise trading |
| Ano: | 2014 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This paper takes search intensity for stock tickers in Google (SVI) as a direct measure of retail investor attention and assesses whether it holds predictive power over short-term market outcomes. In a sample of the most representative US stocks, during the period 2005 – 2008, I provide evidence that (1) surges of investor attention forecast higher stock liquidity and volatility; (2) depending severely on what is considered an abnormal level of SVI, retail investor attention can also be priced; and (3) SVI does not relate to firm-specific features, such as size and value. Furthermore, I extend the investigation to the aggregate market level, finding that investor attention to the market index predicts greater market liquidity, volatility and return. |
|---|