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Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

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Resumo:This paper takes search intensity for stock tickers in Google (SVI) as a direct measure of retail investor attention and assesses whether it holds predictive power over short-term market outcomes. In a sample of the most representative US stocks, during the period 2005 – 2008, I provide evidence that (1) surges of investor attention forecast higher stock liquidity and volatility; (2) depending severely on what is considered an abnormal level of SVI, retail investor attention can also be priced; and (3) SVI does not relate to firm-specific features, such as size and value. Furthermore, I extend the investigation to the aggregate market level, finding that investor attention to the market index predicts greater market liquidity, volatility and return.
Autores principais:Sàágua, João Guilherme Martins Borges
Assunto:Investor attention Search data Stock market predictability Noise trading
Ano:2014
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:dissertação de mestrado
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Institucional da UNL

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