Publicação
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU
| Resumo: | We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU. |
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| Autores principais: | Afonso, António |
| Outros Autores: | Silva, Jorge |
| Assunto: | Budget Balance Ratio Forecasts European Comission 1998-2011 Investment Growth Fiscal Rules |
| Ano: | 2015 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU. |
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