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O impacto da incerteza geopolítica no endividamento : evidência nas maiores empresas europeias

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Resumo:Since 2023, with the intensification of conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, geopolitical uncertainty became one of the main concerns of companies and markets. The main objective of this research is to assess the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on financing decisions and capital structure, specifically in the market's tolerance of corporate debt, cost and debt maturity, through half-yearly uncertainty windows. In addition, the impact on book leverage, risk premiums and speed of incorporating uncertainty is also studied. Dynamic processes and adjustments to the previously verified uncertainty were analyzed using Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regressions. The sample is composed by 250 companies that belong to STOXX EUROPE 600 between 2016 and 2022. The results suggest a positive impact on the market’s response to corporate debt (market leverage) only in anticipation of geopolitical risk. Regarding managers' preference for using debt as a source of financing (book leverage), there was a significant increase in favor of previously verified patterns of uncertainty and a reduction in future anticipation. Additionally, there is an increase in debt costs, as well as on the risk premiums required by investors. As for debt maturity, there is a positive correlation considering past patterns of uncertainty and a significant reduction in the future perspective. The study also shows that the incorporation of uncertainty in future anticipation is carried out more quickly, however, for past standards, MIDAS regressions confirm the non-linearity of the impacts and the tendency for longer adjustment periods.
Autores principais:Rodrigues, Joana Maria de Freitas
Assunto:Geopolitical uncertainty index capital structure financing decisions debt debt costs debt maturity Índice de incerteza geopolítica estrutura de capital decisões de financiamento endividamento custos da dívida maturidade da dívida
Ano:2024
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:dissertação de mestrado
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade de Lisboa
Idioma:português
Origem:Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

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