Publicação
Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis
| Resumo: | This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on energy prices, conditioned by different exchange rate regimes, for 185 economies over the period 1980-2023. The central question is how uncertainty impacts energy prices and whether exchange rate flexibility mediates these effects. Using panel data techniques, including OLS and Panel VAR, we assess both demand and supply-side channels, exploring country-specific differences. Our key findings indicate that uncertainty shocks significantly raise energy prices, particularly in countries with flexible exchange rates, where currency depreciation amplifies global price fluctuations. Asymmetric results are found regarding emerging markets, with flexible exchange rates, which tend to have lower energy prices, while oil-exporting countries and OPEC members experience distinct pricing dynamics. These results underscore the importance of exchange rate policy choices in shaping energy market responses to global shocks. Policymakers may need to adopt complementary measures to manage the volatility arising from global uncertainty |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Afonso, António |
| Outros Autores: | Alves, José; Jalles, João; Monteiro, Sofia |
| Assunto: | Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| Ano: | 2024 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | working paper |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| _version_ | 1866811394936012800 |
|---|---|
| author | Afonso, António |
| author2 | Alves, José Jalles, João Monteiro, Sofia |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Afonso, António Alves, José Jalles, João Monteiro, Sofia |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Afonso, António\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Alves, José\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Jalles, João\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Monteiro, Sofia\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Afonso, António Alves, José Jalles, João Monteiro, Sofia |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2024-09-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2024-11-26T14:03:45Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2024-11-26T14:03:45Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Afonso, António Alves, José Jalles, João Monteiro, Sofia |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2024-09-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2024-11-26T14:03:45Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2024-11-26T14:03:45Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/95645 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 |
| description | This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on energy prices, conditioned by different exchange rate regimes, for 185 economies over the period 1980-2023. The central question is how uncertainty impacts energy prices and whether exchange rate flexibility mediates these effects. Using panel data techniques, including OLS and Panel VAR, we assess both demand and supply-side channels, exploring country-specific differences. Our key findings indicate that uncertainty shocks significantly raise energy prices, particularly in countries with flexible exchange rates, where currency depreciation amplifies global price fluctuations. Asymmetric results are found regarding emerging markets, with flexible exchange rates, which tend to have lower energy prices, while oil-exporting countries and OPEC members experience distinct pricing dynamics. These results underscore the importance of exchange rate policy choices in shaping energy market responses to global shocks. Policymakers may need to adopt complementary measures to manage the volatility arising from global uncertainty |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | workingPaper |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/544ebf79-0439-42b9-87fb-b015104752f0/download |
| id | ul_49a7bf2ff4ce67f39518c08fd1504e92 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/95645 |
| instacron_str | ul |
| institution | Universidade de Lisboa |
| instname_str | Universidade de Lisboa |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ul |
| network_name_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.ulisboa.pt:10400.5/95645 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ul |
| person_str_mv | Afonso, António Alves, José Jalles, João Monteiro, Sofia |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics) |
| reponame_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ul |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ul |
| spelling | engISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)pt_PTThis study examines the effects of geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on energy prices, conditioned by different exchange rate regimes, for 185 economies over the period 1980-2023. The central question is how uncertainty impacts energy prices and whether exchange rate flexibility mediates these effects. Using panel data techniques, including OLS and Panel VAR, we assess both demand and supply-side channels, exploring country-specific differences. Our key findings indicate that uncertainty shocks significantly raise energy prices, particularly in countries with flexible exchange rates, where currency depreciation amplifies global price fluctuations. Asymmetric results are found regarding emerging markets, with flexible exchange rates, which tend to have lower energy prices, while oil-exporting countries and OPEC members experience distinct pricing dynamics. These results underscore the importance of exchange rate policy choices in shaping energy market responses to global shocks. Policymakers may need to adopt complementary measures to manage the volatility arising from global uncertaintyapplication/pdfpt_PTEnergy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysisAfonso, AntónioAlves, JoséJalles, JoãoMonteiro, SofiaHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboae-mailmailto:repositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptrepositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptISSNIsPartOf2184-108X2024-11-26T14:03:45Z2024-092024-09-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/95645http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessGeopolitical RiskWorld Uncertainty IndexGlobal Energy MarketsExchange Rate RegimesAsymmetric Effects2198025 bytesother research producthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042working paperhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/544ebf79-0439-42b9-87fb-b015104752f0/download |
| spellingShingle | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis Afonso, António Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| title | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| title_full | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| title_fullStr | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| title_short | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| title_sort | Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes : a global crosscountry analysis |
| topic | Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| topic_facet | Geopolitical Risk World Uncertainty Index Global Energy Markets Exchange Rate Regimes Asymmetric Effects |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/95645 |
| visible | 1 |