Publication
Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens
| Summary: | To mitigate the effects of climate change on urban green spaces, adaptive strategies are required, particularly regarding tree species. Lisbon is a most vulnerable city to extreme climate events and the performance and management of the numerous and diverse trees found in its gardens and parks are of much concern. We evaluated the vulnerability of such trees to predicted future Lisbon climates using the Climate Assessment Tool (Climate Change Alliance of Botanic Gardens, 2024) and inventories from 63 historical gardens and parks, including three botanical gardens. With the extensive information of the latter we: (i) identified and classified the species according to biogeographical origins; (ii) pinpointed those most vulnerable to, or favoured by climate change; and (iii) assessed the vulnerability of each studied site, according to the species present, their risk level and abundance. Among the selected 318 taxa (corresponding to 19,579 trees), the Palaearctic biogeographical region predominates. The highest risk levels were found in 50 % (77 %, for the most pessimistic climate scenario) of the Palaearctic species, which include many native taxa. Conversely, about 56 % of the Neotropical species are predicted to perform better under the worst climate change scenario. Only one of the ten most abundant tree species in Lisbon – Jacaranda mimosifolia – might remain invulnerable. Management plans for most Lisbon green spaces must therefore reexamine the use of Palaearctic species and tackle challenging adjustments, including the gradual replacement of familiar species (increasingly more difficult to maintain) by others with better performance under future climate conditions. |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | Cunha, Ana Raquel |
| Other Authors: | Soares, Ana Luísa; Catarino, Sílvia; Duarte, Maria Cristina; Romeiras, Maria M. |
| Year: | 2025 |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Document type: | article |
| Access type: | embargoed access |
| Associated institution: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Language: | English |
| Origin: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| _version_ | 1868467459955097600 |
|---|---|
| author | Cunha, Ana Raquel |
| author2 | Soares, Ana Luísa Catarino, Sílvia Duarte, Maria Cristina Romeiras, Maria M. |
| author2_role | author author author author |
| author_facet | Cunha, Ana Raquel Soares, Ana Luísa Catarino, Sílvia Duarte, Maria Cristina Romeiras, Maria M. |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Cunha, Ana Raquel\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Soares, Ana Luísa\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Catarino, Sílvia\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Duarte, Maria Cristina\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-3823-4369\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Romeiras, Maria M.\",\"Person.identifier.orcid\":\"0000-0002-9373-6302\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Cunha, Ana Raquel Soares, Ana Luísa Catarino, Sílvia Duarte, Maria Cristina Romeiras, Maria M. |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2025-02-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2027-02-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2027-02-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Cunha, Ana Raquel Soares, Ana Luísa Catarino, Sílvia Duarte, Maria Cristina Romeiras, Maria M. |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2025-02-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2027-02-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2027-02-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/97540 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| dc.rights.cclincense.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
| description | To mitigate the effects of climate change on urban green spaces, adaptive strategies are required, particularly regarding tree species. Lisbon is a most vulnerable city to extreme climate events and the performance and management of the numerous and diverse trees found in its gardens and parks are of much concern. We evaluated the vulnerability of such trees to predicted future Lisbon climates using the Climate Assessment Tool (Climate Change Alliance of Botanic Gardens, 2024) and inventories from 63 historical gardens and parks, including three botanical gardens. With the extensive information of the latter we: (i) identified and classified the species according to biogeographical origins; (ii) pinpointed those most vulnerable to, or favoured by climate change; and (iii) assessed the vulnerability of each studied site, according to the species present, their risk level and abundance. Among the selected 318 taxa (corresponding to 19,579 trees), the Palaearctic biogeographical region predominates. The highest risk levels were found in 50 % (77 %, for the most pessimistic climate scenario) of the Palaearctic species, which include many native taxa. Conversely, about 56 % of the Neotropical species are predicted to perform better under the worst climate change scenario. Only one of the ten most abundant tree species in Lisbon – Jacaranda mimosifolia – might remain invulnerable. Management plans for most Lisbon green spaces must therefore reexamine the use of Palaearctic species and tackle challenging adjustments, including the gradual replacement of familiar species (increasingly more difficult to maintain) by others with better performance under future climate conditions. |
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| eu_rights_str_mv | embargoedAccess |
| format | article |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/900d48b4-6a28-48d4-bc69-7644a2228232/download |
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| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/97540 |
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| institution | Universidade de Lisboa |
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| language | eng |
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| person_str_mv | Cunha, Ana Raquel Soares, Ana Luísa Catarino, Sílvia Duarte, Maria Cristina Duarte, Maria Cristina https://www.ciencia-id.pt/351A-A358-7D49 351A-A358-7D49 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3823-4369 0000-0002-3823-4369 Romeiras, Maria M. Romeiras, Maria M. https://www.ciencia-id.pt/6A1C-085E-9038 6A1C-085E-9038 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9373-6302 0000-0002-9373-6302 |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| reponame_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
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| spelling | engElsevierpt_PTTo mitigate the effects of climate change on urban green spaces, adaptive strategies are required, particularly regarding tree species. Lisbon is a most vulnerable city to extreme climate events and the performance and management of the numerous and diverse trees found in its gardens and parks are of much concern. We evaluated the vulnerability of such trees to predicted future Lisbon climates using the Climate Assessment Tool (Climate Change Alliance of Botanic Gardens, 2024) and inventories from 63 historical gardens and parks, including three botanical gardens. With the extensive information of the latter we: (i) identified and classified the species according to biogeographical origins; (ii) pinpointed those most vulnerable to, or favoured by climate change; and (iii) assessed the vulnerability of each studied site, according to the species present, their risk level and abundance. Among the selected 318 taxa (corresponding to 19,579 trees), the Palaearctic biogeographical region predominates. The highest risk levels were found in 50 % (77 %, for the most pessimistic climate scenario) of the Palaearctic species, which include many native taxa. Conversely, about 56 % of the Neotropical species are predicted to perform better under the worst climate change scenario. Only one of the ten most abundant tree species in Lisbon – Jacaranda mimosifolia – might remain invulnerable. Management plans for most Lisbon green spaces must therefore reexamine the use of Palaearctic species and tackle challenging adjustments, including the gradual replacement of familiar species (increasingly more difficult to maintain) by others with better performance under future climate conditions.application/pdfpt_PTAssessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardensCunha, Ana RaquelSoares, Ana LuísaCatarino, SílviaPersonalDuarte, Maria CristinaDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/51b41b16-07ee-4b65-a009-f30e17afed9cDSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/51b41b16-07ee-4b65-a009-f30e17afed9cDuarteMaria CristinaCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt351A-A358-7D49ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-3823-4369Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com15841302300PersonalRomeiras, Maria M.DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/ea7b586c-693d-44b0-a338-990949ac6e02DSpacehttp://dspace.org/items/ea7b586c-693d-44b0-a338-990949ac6e02RomeirasMariaCiência IDhttps://www.ciencia-id.pt6A1C-085E-9038ORCIDhttp://orcid.org0000-0002-9373-6302Researcher IDhttps://www.researcherid.comJ-4552-2013Scopus Author IDhttps://www.scopus.com15842082800HostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboae-mailmailto:repositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptrepositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptDOIIsPartOf10.1016/j.ufug.2024.1286642025-022027-02-01T00:00:00Z2025-02-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/97540http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfembargoed access620599 bytesliteraturehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501journal article2025-02http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfapplication/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/900d48b4-6a28-48d4-bc69-7644a2228232/downloadUrban Forestry & Urban Greening104128664 |
| spellingShingle | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens Cunha, Ana Raquel |
| status | SINGLETON |
| title | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| title_full | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| title_short | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| title_sort | Assessing the vulnerability of urban tree species to climate change: The case study of Lisbon gardens |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/97540 |
| visible | 1 |