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Debt and political business cycles in portuguese municipalities

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Resumo:The concept of Politicai Business Cycles considers the relationship between politics and economic policies. International and national empirical works have sought to establish which, if any, of two forms of politicai business cycles exist: opportunistic or partisan. The objective of this work is the study of politicai business cycles (PBC) at local government levei through debt based on a set of Poríuguese data. Traditionally, politicai business cycles are observed through budgetary variables, in particular, investment. Expenditure relates with municipal financing mechanisms, one of which is debt. In order to attempt to discover politicai business cycles in the behaviour of debt, we have built an econometric generic model, supported by a set of variables that has been used in recent studies to capture opportunistic cycles. This model was applied to data for the period 1978-2002, covering seven municipal elections in the years 1979, 1982, 1985, 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2001. An ideological variable was included to study its interaction with the dependent variable on a set of fifteen individual municipalities where partisan cycles were analysed. The model was estimated through OLS linear regressions for a set of data which included three leveis: i) the municipalities of Continental Portugal; ii) the Lisbon district, which is composed of 15 municipalities; and iii) those fifteen individual municipalities. We conclude, on the basis of our results, that opportunistic cycles occur in the first two of the three above-mentioned leveis.
Autores principais:Silva, Carla Alexandra Oliveira da
Assunto:Politicai Business Cycles Local Government Portugal Debt
Ano:2007
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:dissertação de mestrado
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade de Lisboa
Idioma:português
Origem:Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

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