Publicação
Demographic changes in a life-cycle small open economy with endogenous time allocation and age-dependent mortality
| Resumo: | This thesis analyses the effects of demographic aging on a small open economy. It is driven by the aging process that advanced economies are going through. Population aging has a negative accounting effect on the economy by deteriorating dependency ratios. We quantify these negative impacts and one of our main objectives is to test and quantify, the existence of a positive behavioral effect of the agents in response to an increase in life expectancy. The economy's model is developed over three chapters. In the first, the consumer block is modeled. Individuals maximize their expected lifetime utility, taking into account an age dependent survival function. In order to enhance the behavioral effect, individuals affect their available time in leisure, studying, and work at the intensive margin. The partial equilibrium numerical analysis suggests an increase in labor supply and investment in human capital as a response to the increase in life expectancy. In the second essay, an endogenous growth model of horizontal innovation is constructed in which growth has two sources: research and accumulation of human capital. It is confirmed that the growth rate of GDP per capita is negatively affected by the rate of deterioration of the dependency ratio. In the third essay, we perform the numerical analysis of the model developed in the previous chapters. With the demographic scenario chosen, which contains aging and population decline, in case of inaction, public and foreign debt would explode. Among the policies studied to control public debt, the best is to raise the retirement age. We also conclude that the aging of the population has a more significant negative impact than the population decrease. Finally, we detect a positive behavioral effect of the agents, which is manifested more by the increase of labor supply, but this effect is quantitatively modest. |
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| Autores principais: | Pereira, João Paulo Cabral |
| Assunto: | Demographic Changes Time Allocation Endogenous Growth Open Economy Quantitative Analysis Alterações Demográfi cas Alocação do Tempo Crescimento Endógeno Economia Aberta Análise Quantitativa |
| Ano: | 2020 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | tese de doutoramento |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | This thesis analyses the effects of demographic aging on a small open economy. It is driven by the aging process that advanced economies are going through. Population aging has a negative accounting effect on the economy by deteriorating dependency ratios. We quantify these negative impacts and one of our main objectives is to test and quantify, the existence of a positive behavioral effect of the agents in response to an increase in life expectancy. The economy's model is developed over three chapters. In the first, the consumer block is modeled. Individuals maximize their expected lifetime utility, taking into account an age dependent survival function. In order to enhance the behavioral effect, individuals affect their available time in leisure, studying, and work at the intensive margin. The partial equilibrium numerical analysis suggests an increase in labor supply and investment in human capital as a response to the increase in life expectancy. In the second essay, an endogenous growth model of horizontal innovation is constructed in which growth has two sources: research and accumulation of human capital. It is confirmed that the growth rate of GDP per capita is negatively affected by the rate of deterioration of the dependency ratio. In the third essay, we perform the numerical analysis of the model developed in the previous chapters. With the demographic scenario chosen, which contains aging and population decline, in case of inaction, public and foreign debt would explode. Among the policies studied to control public debt, the best is to raise the retirement age. We also conclude that the aging of the population has a more significant negative impact than the population decrease. Finally, we detect a positive behavioral effect of the agents, which is manifested more by the increase of labor supply, but this effect is quantitatively modest. |
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