Publicação

Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal

Ver documento

Detalhes bibliográficos
Resumo:A combined assessment of the potential impacts from climate change (CC) and socio-economic development (SED) on water resources is presented for a large aquifer in the south of Portugal, under large pressures from water consuming and contaminating activities. We aim to understand how this may further be aggravated by CC and SED, particularly for agriculture, the largest water consumer in the region. Short-term (2020-2050) and long-term (2070-2100) CC scenarios were developed and used to build aquifer recharge and crop water demand scenarios, using different models and methods to account for uncertainty. SED scenarios were developed using a number of techniques, and discussed at workshops with farmers and institutional stakeholders in the water sector. Groundwater use was quantified for each scenario and then integrated with the CC scenarios. They were run through a calibrated groundwater flow model, to study their individual and joint impacts on water levels and discharge rates into the bordering coastal estuary where relevant freshwater dependent wetlands exist. Recharge scenarios show clearly negative long-term trends, but high uncertainties in the short-term. Scenario SED1 predicting intensification and decline of small farms, considered by stakeholders to be most likely, shows a large drop in agricultural area and water demand. SED2, the most desired scenario, foresees growth and modernization of agriculture, but could be unsustainable in combination with CC. The joint analysis of CC and SED revealed to be challenging but useful. It involved the use of different methods across the border between natural and social sciences, aiming to contribute to transdisciplinary water management.
Autores principais:Stigter, Tibor
Outros Autores:Bento, Sofia; Varanda, Marta Pedro; Nunes, João Pedro; Hugman, Rui
Assunto:Alterações climáticas Recursos hídricos
Ano:2013
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:documento de conferência
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
_version_ 1865920811516297216
author Stigter, Tibor
author2 Bento, Sofia
Varanda, Marta Pedro
Nunes, João Pedro
Hugman, Rui
author2_role author
author
author
author
author_facet Stigter, Tibor
Stigter, Tibor
Bento, Sofia
Varanda, Marta Pedro
Nunes, João Pedro
Hugman, Rui
Bento, Sofia
Varanda, Marta Pedro
Nunes, João Pedro
Hugman, Rui
author_role author
contributor_name_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa
country_str PT
creators_json_str [{\"Person.name\":\"Stigter, Tibor\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Bento, Sofia\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Varanda, Marta Pedro\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Nunes, João Pedro\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Hugman, Rui\"}]
datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa
datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv Stigter, Tibor
Bento, Sofia
Varanda, Marta Pedro
Nunes, João Pedro
Hugman, Rui
datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z
datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv 2013-04-19T17:05:21Z
datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv 2013-04-19T17:05:21Z
datacite.rights.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Stigter, Tibor
Bento, Sofia
Varanda, Marta Pedro
Nunes, João Pedro
Hugman, Rui
dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2013-04-19T17:05:21Z
dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv 2013-04-19T17:05:21Z
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/8347
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv CESAM – Department of Environment & Planning, University of Aveiro
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
dc.title.fl_str_mv Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_c94f
description A combined assessment of the potential impacts from climate change (CC) and socio-economic development (SED) on water resources is presented for a large aquifer in the south of Portugal, under large pressures from water consuming and contaminating activities. We aim to understand how this may further be aggravated by CC and SED, particularly for agriculture, the largest water consumer in the region. Short-term (2020-2050) and long-term (2070-2100) CC scenarios were developed and used to build aquifer recharge and crop water demand scenarios, using different models and methods to account for uncertainty. SED scenarios were developed using a number of techniques, and discussed at workshops with farmers and institutional stakeholders in the water sector. Groundwater use was quantified for each scenario and then integrated with the CC scenarios. They were run through a calibrated groundwater flow model, to study their individual and joint impacts on water levels and discharge rates into the bordering coastal estuary where relevant freshwater dependent wetlands exist. Recharge scenarios show clearly negative long-term trends, but high uncertainties in the short-term. Scenario SED1 predicting intensification and decline of small farms, considered by stakeholders to be most likely, shows a large drop in agricultural area and water demand. SED2, the most desired scenario, foresees growth and modernization of agriculture, but could be unsustainable in combination with CC. The joint analysis of CC and SED revealed to be challenging but useful. It involved the use of different methods across the border between natural and social sciences, aiming to contribute to transdisciplinary water management.
dirty 0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format conferenceObject
fulltext.url.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/c2f6c510-5311-4197-9efb-f99e971086d4/download
id ul_7f4ba3aefd4b4a53e16111b227dd64b4
identifier.url.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/8347
instacron_str ul
institution Universidade de Lisboa
instname_str Universidade de Lisboa
language eng
network_acronym_str ul
network_name_str Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
oai_identifier_str oai:repositorio.ulisboa.pt:10451/8347
organization_str_mv urn:organizationAcronym:ul
person_str_mv Stigter, Tibor
Bento, Sofia
Varanda, Marta Pedro
Nunes, João Pedro
Hugman, Rui
publishDate 2013
publisher.none.fl_str_mv CESAM – Department of Environment & Planning, University of Aveiro
reponame_str Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
repository_id_str urn:repositoryAcronym:ul
service_str_mv urn:repositoryAcronym:ul
spelling engCESAM – Department of Environment & Planning, University of AveiroporA combined assessment of the potential impacts from climate change (CC) and socio-economic development (SED) on water resources is presented for a large aquifer in the south of Portugal, under large pressures from water consuming and contaminating activities. We aim to understand how this may further be aggravated by CC and SED, particularly for agriculture, the largest water consumer in the region. Short-term (2020-2050) and long-term (2070-2100) CC scenarios were developed and used to build aquifer recharge and crop water demand scenarios, using different models and methods to account for uncertainty. SED scenarios were developed using a number of techniques, and discussed at workshops with farmers and institutional stakeholders in the water sector. Groundwater use was quantified for each scenario and then integrated with the CC scenarios. They were run through a calibrated groundwater flow model, to study their individual and joint impacts on water levels and discharge rates into the bordering coastal estuary where relevant freshwater dependent wetlands exist. Recharge scenarios show clearly negative long-term trends, but high uncertainties in the short-term. Scenario SED1 predicting intensification and decline of small farms, considered by stakeholders to be most likely, shows a large drop in agricultural area and water demand. SED2, the most desired scenario, foresees growth and modernization of agriculture, but could be unsustainable in combination with CC. The joint analysis of CC and SED revealed to be challenging but useful. It involved the use of different methods across the border between natural and social sciences, aiming to contribute to transdisciplinary water management.application/pdfporCombined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of PortugalStigter, TiborBento, SofiaVaranda, Marta PedroNunes, João PedroHugman, RuiHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboae-mailmailto:repositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptrepositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.pt2013-04-19T17:05:21Z20132013-01-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/8347http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessAlterações climáticasRecursos hídricos426932 bytesother research producthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_c94fconference objecthttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/c2f6c510-5311-4197-9efb-f99e971086d4/downloadTWAM2013 International Conference & Workshops – Proceedings16Aveiro
spellingShingle Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
Stigter, Tibor
Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
Stigter, Tibor
Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
status SINGLETON
subject.fl_str_mv Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
title Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
title_full Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
title_fullStr Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
title_short Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
title_sort Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the South of Portugal
topic Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
topic_facet Alterações climáticas
Recursos hídricos
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/8347
visible 1