Publicação
Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth
| Resumo: | What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Cevik, Serhan |
| Outros Autores: | Jalles, João Tovar |
| Assunto: | Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| Ano: | 2023 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | working paper |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| _version_ | 1866810529342816256 |
|---|---|
| author | Cevik, Serhan |
| author2 | Jalles, João Tovar |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Cevik, Serhan Jalles, João Tovar |
| author_role | author |
| contributor_name_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| country_str | PT |
| creators_json_txt | [{\"Person.name\":\"Cevik, Serhan\"},{\"Person.name\":\"Jalles, João Tovar\"}] |
| datacite.contributors.contributor.contributorName.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| datacite.creators.creator.creatorName.fl_str_mv | Cevik, Serhan Jalles, João Tovar |
| datacite.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z |
| datacite.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-20T13:46:13Z |
| datacite.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-20T13:46:13Z |
| datacite.rights.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| datacite.subjects.subject.fl_str_mv | Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| datacite.titles.title.fl_str_mv | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboa |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Cevik, Serhan Jalles, João Tovar |
| dc.date.Accepted.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-20T13:46:13Z |
| dc.date.embargoed.fl_str_mv | 2023-06-20T13:46:13Z |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv | ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv | Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| dc.title.fl_str_mv | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 |
| description | What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits. |
| dirty | 0 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | workingPaper |
| fulltext.url.fl_str_mv | https://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/9ddf61ff-fd7a-438b-ba89-b8da2054b994/download |
| id | ul_e6d411e1acf18ca3ae3cddcea00a2d00 |
| identifier.url.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929 |
| instacron_str | ul |
| institution | Universidade de Lisboa |
| instname_str | Universidade de Lisboa |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ul |
| network_name_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.ulisboa.pt:10400.5/27929 |
| organization_str_mv | urn:organizationAcronym:ul |
| person_str_mv | Cevik, Serhan Jalles, João Tovar |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv | ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
| reponame_str | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| repository_id_str | urn:repositoryAcronym:ul |
| service_str_mv | urn:repositoryAcronym:ul |
| spelling | engISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematicspt_PTWhat is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits.application/pdfpt_PTEye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growthCevik, SerhanJalles, João TovarHostingInstitutionOrganizationalRepositório Científico de Acesso Aberto da ULisboae-mailmailto:repositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptrepositorio@reitoria.ulisboa.ptISSNIsPartOf2184-108X2023-06-20T13:46:13Z2023-062023-06-01T00:00:00ZHandlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2open accessClimate changenatural disastersinflationgrowthlocal projectionspanel data2101787 bytesother research producthttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042working paperhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2application/pdffulltexthttps://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/bitstreams/9ddf61ff-fd7a-438b-ba89-b8da2054b994/download |
| spellingShingle | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth Cevik, Serhan Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| status | SINGLETON |
| subject.fl_str_mv | Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| title | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| title_full | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| title_fullStr | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| title_short | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| title_sort | Eye of the storm : the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth |
| topic | Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| topic_facet | Climate change natural disasters inflation growth local projections panel data |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/27929 |
| visible | 1 |