Author(s): Chen, K ; de Schrijver, E ; Sivaraj, S ; Sera, F ; Scovronick, N ; Jiang, L ; Roye, D ; Lavigne, E ; Kyselý, J ; Urban, A ; Schneider, A ; Huber, V ; Madureira, J ; Mistry, MN ; Cvijanovic, I ; MCC Collaborative Research Network ; Gasparrini, A ; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM
Date: 2024
Persistent ID: https://hdl.handle.net/10216/157564
Origin: Repositório Aberto da Universidade do Porto
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
