Publicação
O Impacto da Covid-19 nas Contas Públicas em Portugal
| Resumo: | In a socioeconomic context deeply marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, thepresent master’s dissertation aims to analyse the health crisis impact on theportuguese public finances, concretely, in the Public Administrations revenue andspending throughout 2020. In order to do so, it is important to understand themagnitude of the registered variations in the public accounts in comparison to thehomologous periods, as well as the manner in which it relates to the experiencedpandemic phenomenon.This study characterizes as a quantitative methodological investigation,based on the monthly budget execution synthesis published by the General BudgetDirection, in parallel with the forecasts established by the State Budget andAdditional Budget. To achieve so, an analysis of the Central Administration andSocial Security revenue, spending and balance was conducted, whilst comparingthe data with the homologous records, in order to identify the primary alterations aswell as their justification. Furthermore, the direct and indirect impacts of the crisis inthe public finances were identified, distinguishing between the costs associated withthe measures taken in response to the health crisis, and the pandemic’s effects onthe economy which translated into budget changes. Lastly, in order to to assess theexistence of possible relations, the correlation between the changes registered indifferent budget components and the number of new Covid-19 cases was estimated.After analysing the data, it was concluded that the registered public revenuebreak was larger than expected, whilst oppositely, the spending showed a smallerthan predicted increase. The coupling of these elements resulted in better thanexpected global balance. In this sense, it was established that the pandemic’simpact on the public accounts ascended to 7.938,9 million euros. Lastly, it wasdetermined that the spending with subsidies shows the strongest association to thenumber of new Covid-19 cases, representing the most demonstrative component ofthe pandemic evolution in the portuguese public finances. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Morais, José Miguel Ferreira Pires |
| Assunto: | Covid-19 Execução Orçamental Administrações Públicas Receita Despesa Covid-19 Budget Execution Public Administration Revenue Spending |
| Ano: | 2021 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Coimbra |
| Idioma: | português |
| Origem: | Estudo Geral - Universidade de Coimbra |
| Resumo: | In a socioeconomic context deeply marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, thepresent master’s dissertation aims to analyse the health crisis impact on theportuguese public finances, concretely, in the Public Administrations revenue andspending throughout 2020. In order to do so, it is important to understand themagnitude of the registered variations in the public accounts in comparison to thehomologous periods, as well as the manner in which it relates to the experiencedpandemic phenomenon.This study characterizes as a quantitative methodological investigation,based on the monthly budget execution synthesis published by the General BudgetDirection, in parallel with the forecasts established by the State Budget andAdditional Budget. To achieve so, an analysis of the Central Administration andSocial Security revenue, spending and balance was conducted, whilst comparingthe data with the homologous records, in order to identify the primary alterations aswell as their justification. Furthermore, the direct and indirect impacts of the crisis inthe public finances were identified, distinguishing between the costs associated withthe measures taken in response to the health crisis, and the pandemic’s effects onthe economy which translated into budget changes. Lastly, in order to to assess theexistence of possible relations, the correlation between the changes registered indifferent budget components and the number of new Covid-19 cases was estimated.After analysing the data, it was concluded that the registered public revenuebreak was larger than expected, whilst oppositely, the spending showed a smallerthan predicted increase. The coupling of these elements resulted in better thanexpected global balance. In this sense, it was established that the pandemic’simpact on the public accounts ascended to 7.938,9 million euros. Lastly, it wasdetermined that the spending with subsidies shows the strongest association to thenumber of new Covid-19 cases, representing the most demonstrative component ofthe pandemic evolution in the portuguese public finances. |
|---|