Publicação
The impact of tourism on the real estate market: the case of the world’s leading tourism destination
| Resumo: | Housing market is an important segment of real estate market and the evolution of house prices is not only related with the macroeconomic factors and construction industry factors, but also with the tourism industry factors. The purpose of this master’s dissertation is to give an overview of the Portuguese housing market and determine the fundamental factors that have an influence on the housing prices. Considering the recent high growth of tourism activity in Portugal, this study analyzes if tourism has had an impact on the housing prices, in the World's Leading Tourism Destination Country. We focus on answering the following question: What is the impact of tourism on the real estate market? This research seeks to understand the main drivers of the house prices of a European country using the Engle-Granger Cointegration analysis. Using a quarterly database between 1998 and 2019 about Portugal, based on cointegration test we find a positive long run relationship between house prices and inflation rate, housing permits, construction cost, loans and tourism, while unemployment rate has a negative impact on house prices in long term. In addition, based on error correction model, we find that in the short run housing prices are determined by the factors of unemployment rate, housing permits, construction costs and loans in Portugal. In this way, we evidence that tourism only affects the house prices in Portugal in the long run and has no effects on the housing market in the short run. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Rehman, Saira Khalil Ur |
| Assunto: | Tourism Housing prices Engle-Granger cointegration |
| Ano: | 2020 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Instituto Politécnico de Bragança |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Biblioteca Digital do IPB |
| Resumo: | Housing market is an important segment of real estate market and the evolution of house prices is not only related with the macroeconomic factors and construction industry factors, but also with the tourism industry factors. The purpose of this master’s dissertation is to give an overview of the Portuguese housing market and determine the fundamental factors that have an influence on the housing prices. Considering the recent high growth of tourism activity in Portugal, this study analyzes if tourism has had an impact on the housing prices, in the World's Leading Tourism Destination Country. We focus on answering the following question: What is the impact of tourism on the real estate market? This research seeks to understand the main drivers of the house prices of a European country using the Engle-Granger Cointegration analysis. Using a quarterly database between 1998 and 2019 about Portugal, based on cointegration test we find a positive long run relationship between house prices and inflation rate, housing permits, construction cost, loans and tourism, while unemployment rate has a negative impact on house prices in long term. In addition, based on error correction model, we find that in the short run housing prices are determined by the factors of unemployment rate, housing permits, construction costs and loans in Portugal. In this way, we evidence that tourism only affects the house prices in Portugal in the long run and has no effects on the housing market in the short run. |
|---|