Publicação
Economic voting: Election behavior based on economic indicators
| Resumo: | In order to assess the extent to which voters hold governments responsible for economic performance, this dissertation dives into the phenomenon of economic voting in all eurozone countries, between 1980 and 2023. The purpose of this endeavor is to understand if development or regressions in certain macroeconomic variables have an impact on electoral outcomes across Europe. Several hypotheses are evaluated using different econometric models in panel data form. The dependent variable is the variation in incumbent’s vote share from one election to the other. Multiple macroeconomic indicators and political control variables are integrated into the model. Results show that economic performance does in fact have a considerable impact on the ballots. However the degree of said impact varies in macroeconomic indicators and in political control variables. Nonetheless these results give important insights into macro-level studies of economic voting, particularly into European monetary policy and political accountability. |
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| Autores principais: | Pereira, Henrique Queiroz Nazaré Marques |
| Assunto: | Eleição -- Election Indicadores macroeconómicos -- Macroeconomic indicator Economic voting Zona euro -- Euro zone Voto económico |
| Ano: | 2024 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso restrito |
| Instituição associada: | ISCTE |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório ISCTE |
| Resumo: | In order to assess the extent to which voters hold governments responsible for economic performance, this dissertation dives into the phenomenon of economic voting in all eurozone countries, between 1980 and 2023. The purpose of this endeavor is to understand if development or regressions in certain macroeconomic variables have an impact on electoral outcomes across Europe. Several hypotheses are evaluated using different econometric models in panel data form. The dependent variable is the variation in incumbent’s vote share from one election to the other. Multiple macroeconomic indicators and political control variables are integrated into the model. Results show that economic performance does in fact have a considerable impact on the ballots. However the degree of said impact varies in macroeconomic indicators and in political control variables. Nonetheless these results give important insights into macro-level studies of economic voting, particularly into European monetary policy and political accountability. |
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