Publicação
Future precipitation scenarios in Portugal using high-resolution WRF simulations based on a global model from CMIP6
| Resumo: | The context of global climate change, exacerbated by human activity, justifies the need for detailed regional climate projections, particularly for vulnerable regions like Portugal. This study aims to assess changes in precipitation in Portugal under three future scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the future periods of 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, compared to the reference period 1995-2014. For this purpose, WRF model simulations with a spatial resolution of 6 km based on a CMIP6 global model were used. These simulations were validated with the WRF simulation of ERA5 data, and a statistical analysis of the data was performed, including differences in the annual and seasonal precipitation medians and various precipitation indices. The results indicate a general trend of reduced annual precipitation, more pronounced in summer and in the southern region, as well as a lower frequency of rainy days, in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, with significant impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, a significant increase in annual precipitation is projected, more pronounced in winter, along with a greater concentration of intense precipitation events over shorter periods, leading to an intensification of extreme events. This study underscores the importance of using high-resolution models to capture regional climate variations and the need for specific adaptation policies. These projections underline the importance of proactive climate adaptation in Portugal, including sustainable water resource management, diversification of agricultural practices, and the implementation of environmental conservation policies to mitigate the impacts of projected climate changes. |
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| Autores principais: | Barbosa, David Emanuel São Marcos |
| Assunto: | Climate change Precipitation WRF model CMIP6 Portugal Bias correction Climate simulations Precipitation indices |
| Ano: | 2024 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso embargado |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Aveiro |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | RIA - Repositório Institucional da Universidade de Aveiro |
| Resumo: | The context of global climate change, exacerbated by human activity, justifies the need for detailed regional climate projections, particularly for vulnerable regions like Portugal. This study aims to assess changes in precipitation in Portugal under three future scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the future periods of 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, compared to the reference period 1995-2014. For this purpose, WRF model simulations with a spatial resolution of 6 km based on a CMIP6 global model were used. These simulations were validated with the WRF simulation of ERA5 data, and a statistical analysis of the data was performed, including differences in the annual and seasonal precipitation medians and various precipitation indices. The results indicate a general trend of reduced annual precipitation, more pronounced in summer and in the southern region, as well as a lower frequency of rainy days, in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, with significant impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, a significant increase in annual precipitation is projected, more pronounced in winter, along with a greater concentration of intense precipitation events over shorter periods, leading to an intensification of extreme events. This study underscores the importance of using high-resolution models to capture regional climate variations and the need for specific adaptation policies. These projections underline the importance of proactive climate adaptation in Portugal, including sustainable water resource management, diversification of agricultural practices, and the implementation of environmental conservation policies to mitigate the impacts of projected climate changes. |
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