Publicação
What economic indicators impact in the growth of the National GDP?
| Resumo: | This dissertation has the objective to study the relationship between the main economic indicators, such as Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and their effect on Gross Domestic Product in Portugal, analysing the period from 2006 to 2018. The literature review reveals that Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Balance influence the GDP, while the Unemployment Rate is influenced by it. The tests used were: Least Squares Method, Durbin-Watson, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Engle-Granger, Johansen Cointegration and VAR Model. From the statistical analysis, it is concluded that the analysed variables (Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate) are good GDP predictors, having been obtained models with explanatory capacities between 70% and 96%, increasing when values from previous years were included. It is also concluded that exports are the most significant indicator in the GDP forecast, and its influence is positive. The Trade Balance also positively influences GDP, while it is concluded that the Unemployment Rate has a negative impact on GDP. The results regarding FDI are not so clear, being this subject left to deepen in the future. |
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| Autores principais: | Coto, Bruna Daniela Gonçalves do |
| Assunto: | Economic growth Exports Foreign direct investment Gross domestic product Unemployment Crescimento económico Desemprego Exportações Investimento direto estrangeiro Produto interno bruto |
| Ano: | 2021 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade do Minho |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | RepositóriUM - Universidade do Minho |
| Resumo: | This dissertation has the objective to study the relationship between the main economic indicators, such as Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and their effect on Gross Domestic Product in Portugal, analysing the period from 2006 to 2018. The literature review reveals that Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Balance influence the GDP, while the Unemployment Rate is influenced by it. The tests used were: Least Squares Method, Durbin-Watson, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Engle-Granger, Johansen Cointegration and VAR Model. From the statistical analysis, it is concluded that the analysed variables (Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate) are good GDP predictors, having been obtained models with explanatory capacities between 70% and 96%, increasing when values from previous years were included. It is also concluded that exports are the most significant indicator in the GDP forecast, and its influence is positive. The Trade Balance also positively influences GDP, while it is concluded that the Unemployment Rate has a negative impact on GDP. The results regarding FDI are not so clear, being this subject left to deepen in the future. |
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