Publicação
What is the impact of assumptions on the calculation of an actuarial valuation in Germany?
| Resumo: | The purpose of this project work is to acknowledge and quantify the impact of assumptions on the calculation of an actuarial valuation in Germany, and, simultaneously compare multiple scenarios, in order to identify which ones have the highest impact on normal cost. Regarding the methodology, in collaboration with Mercer, the project utilizes anonymized data from a German enterprise, as well as a software capable of calculating the actuarial valuation. The study includes four actuarial assumptions, which are discount rate, cost of living increase, pay increase and mortality rates, and for the creation of scenarios, variations of 0,5% and 1% are taken for each assumption. The key finding from this research is that, in this particular case, the most decreasing scenario occurred when there was a 1% increase in the discount rate, while the most increasing one was observed when the pension growth rate increased by 1%. In both scenarios, it was visible a variation higher, in absolute terms, than 10% in the normal cost, which leads to the conclusion that assumptions have a major effect on the plan's financial status, funding levels and the adequacy of benefits provided to pensioners. Therefore, plan sponsors must do their selection with great caution, using reliable information and in accordance with the plan’s details. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Pires, Gonçalo Dória Farrajota Calixto |
| Assunto: | Actuarial Valuation German Pension Plan Actuarial Assumption Defined Benefit SDG 1 - No poverty SDG 3 - Good health and well-being SDG 8 - Decent work and economic growth |
| Ano: | 2023 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | The purpose of this project work is to acknowledge and quantify the impact of assumptions on the calculation of an actuarial valuation in Germany, and, simultaneously compare multiple scenarios, in order to identify which ones have the highest impact on normal cost. Regarding the methodology, in collaboration with Mercer, the project utilizes anonymized data from a German enterprise, as well as a software capable of calculating the actuarial valuation. The study includes four actuarial assumptions, which are discount rate, cost of living increase, pay increase and mortality rates, and for the creation of scenarios, variations of 0,5% and 1% are taken for each assumption. The key finding from this research is that, in this particular case, the most decreasing scenario occurred when there was a 1% increase in the discount rate, while the most increasing one was observed when the pension growth rate increased by 1%. In both scenarios, it was visible a variation higher, in absolute terms, than 10% in the normal cost, which leads to the conclusion that assumptions have a major effect on the plan's financial status, funding levels and the adequacy of benefits provided to pensioners. Therefore, plan sponsors must do their selection with great caution, using reliable information and in accordance with the plan’s details. |
|---|