Publicação
Fiscal multipliers in Portugal: a local projections approach
| Resumo: | This study aims to quantify the fiscal multipliers in Portugal by employing the widely used SVAR model and highlighting the less commonly used Local Projections method. Additionally, this study applies the non-linear local projections method to account for the differences between expansion and recession periods. The results suggest that both SVAR and Local Projections approaches provide similar estimates, with both supporting a high and positive government consumption multiplier. Furthermore, the non-linear local projections method supports the Keynesian theory that fiscal multipliers are larger in recessions. Overall, findings show the importance of government consumption as a stimulus to overcome recessionary periods. |
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| Autores principais: | Rocha, Madalena Castelão Gonçalves Barata da |
| Assunto: | Fiscal multipliers Local projections Regime switching Structural var Expansion Recession Portugal |
| Ano: | 2023 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This study aims to quantify the fiscal multipliers in Portugal by employing the widely used SVAR model and highlighting the less commonly used Local Projections method. Additionally, this study applies the non-linear local projections method to account for the differences between expansion and recession periods. The results suggest that both SVAR and Local Projections approaches provide similar estimates, with both supporting a high and positive government consumption multiplier. Furthermore, the non-linear local projections method supports the Keynesian theory that fiscal multipliers are larger in recessions. Overall, findings show the importance of government consumption as a stimulus to overcome recessionary periods. |
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