Detalhes bibliográficos
| Resumo: | The general posture towards forecasts is often one of scepticism: provided with the same in formation, predictions differ significantly. But the inefficient use of information might not be the single cause to blame. I assess the potential biased behaviour from fiscal and monetary authorities towards over- and underpredictions of key macroeconomic variables. I propose an estimation routine based on GMM to identify asymmetric loss functions and discuss the plau sible underlying economic costs that shape the preferences of institutions and thus respective forecasts. I find that all institutions favour the overprediction of real output growth and mone tary authorities prefer to underpredict inflation, whilst fiscal authorities tend to overpredict it. |
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| Autores principais: | Sousa, Pedro Nuno Garcez Moreira de |
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| Assunto: | Macroeconomic 1forecasting Loss function Asymmetric preferences Forecast rationality Macroeconometrics |
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| Ano: | 2022 |
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| País: | Portugal |
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| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
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| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
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| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
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| Idioma: | inglês |
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| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
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