Publicação
A new era of brewing: a comprehensive equity valuation of Heineken N. V. in a transforming industry
| Resumo: | This Equity Research evaluates the long-term prospects and value of Heineken N.V. through a comprehensive analysis of the company’s strategic positioning, industry environment, competitive landscape and geographic exposure. The study combines a qualitative assessment of key industry trends, such as premiumization, low- and no-alcohol consumption, digital transformation and sustainability, with a quantitative valuation framework. Revenues were forecast using a region-by-region approach that decomposes growth into volume and price, while incorporating premiumization effects, reflecting differences in market maturity and consumer behavior across Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East and Asia Pacific. The valuation was primarily conducted using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)methodology, complemented by additional valuation frameworks, as well as sensitivity and scenario analyses to assess the robustness of the results. The findings indicate that, despite Heineken’s strong brand portfolio and global footprint, the estimated intrinsic value implies limited upside relative to the current market price. Accordingly, the report concludes with a HOLD investment recommendation. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Afonso, Érica Coelho |
| Assunto: | Heineken N.V Beer Premiumization Valuation |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This Equity Research evaluates the long-term prospects and value of Heineken N.V. through a comprehensive analysis of the company’s strategic positioning, industry environment, competitive landscape and geographic exposure. The study combines a qualitative assessment of key industry trends, such as premiumization, low- and no-alcohol consumption, digital transformation and sustainability, with a quantitative valuation framework. Revenues were forecast using a region-by-region approach that decomposes growth into volume and price, while incorporating premiumization effects, reflecting differences in market maturity and consumer behavior across Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East and Asia Pacific. The valuation was primarily conducted using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)methodology, complemented by additional valuation frameworks, as well as sensitivity and scenario analyses to assess the robustness of the results. The findings indicate that, despite Heineken’s strong brand portfolio and global footprint, the estimated intrinsic value implies limited upside relative to the current market price. Accordingly, the report concludes with a HOLD investment recommendation. |
|---|