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A fractional order SIR model describing hesitancy to the COVID-19 vaccination

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Resumo:This study introduces a SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model using fractional derivatives to assess the population's hesitancy to the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Portugal. Leveraging the framework developed by Angstmann [1], our approach incorporates fractional derivatives to best describe the nuanced dynamics of the vaccination process. We begin by examining the qualitative properties of the proposed model. To substantiate the inclusion of fractional derivatives, empirical data along with statistical criteria are applied. Numerical simulations are performed to compare both integer and fractional order models. An epidemiological interpretation for the fractional order of the model is provided, in the context of a vaccination campaign.
Autores principais:Caetano, Constantino
Outros Autores:Morgado, Luísa; Lima, Pedro; Hens, Niel; Nunes, Baltazar
Assunto:COVID-19 Fractional derivatives SIR model Vaccine hesitancy Numerical Analysis Computational Mathematics Applied Mathematics SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Ano:2025
País:Portugal
Tipo de documento:artigo
Tipo de acesso:acesso aberto
Instituição associada:Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Idioma:inglês
Origem:Repositório Institucional da UNL
Descrição
Resumo:This study introduces a SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model using fractional derivatives to assess the population's hesitancy to the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Portugal. Leveraging the framework developed by Angstmann [1], our approach incorporates fractional derivatives to best describe the nuanced dynamics of the vaccination process. We begin by examining the qualitative properties of the proposed model. To substantiate the inclusion of fractional derivatives, empirical data along with statistical criteria are applied. Numerical simulations are performed to compare both integer and fractional order models. An epidemiological interpretation for the fractional order of the model is provided, in the context of a vaccination campaign.