Publicação
An analysis of Ecuador’s real effective exchange rate under dollarization
| Resumo: | A time-series ARDL model produced an estimated REER misalignment that was larger in its overvaluation than the estimated overvaluations of the EQCHANGE database and the IMF reports. All three estimates corroborated that movement of REER after the 2014-2016 decline in oil prices deviated from what the macroeconomic fundamentals would justify. An analysis, rooted in separate evaluations by the IMF, of dollarization’s role in Ecuador’s overvalued REER through an appreciation of the dollar and unsynchronized business cycles. The implications of a persistently overvalued REER are varied, but its effect on competitiveness and productivity of tradables is noteworthy given Ecuador’s low-complexity exports. |
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| Autores principais: | Lapeyre Jr, Philip Francis |
| Assunto: | Macroeconomics Real effective exchange rate Dollarization Ecuador |
| Ano: | 2024 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | A time-series ARDL model produced an estimated REER misalignment that was larger in its overvaluation than the estimated overvaluations of the EQCHANGE database and the IMF reports. All three estimates corroborated that movement of REER after the 2014-2016 decline in oil prices deviated from what the macroeconomic fundamentals would justify. An analysis, rooted in separate evaluations by the IMF, of dollarization’s role in Ecuador’s overvalued REER through an appreciation of the dollar and unsynchronized business cycles. The implications of a persistently overvalued REER are varied, but its effect on competitiveness and productivity of tradables is noteworthy given Ecuador’s low-complexity exports. |
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