Publication
Macroeconomic determinants of on-chain stablecoin demand: evidence from a high-frequency micro-panel
| Summary: | This working project tests the “Digital Dollarization” hypothesis using a novel panel of 394,000 geolocated Ethereum wallets across 23 countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, I document a robust null result: individual stablecoin flows are statistically insensitive to domestic inflation or policy rates. Instead, agents behave as “Retail Globalists”, responding significantly to U.S. monetary policy (βFed ≈ −35.7) and global risk aversion (βV IX ≈ 2.57). Consequently, stablecoins function less as domestic currency substitutes and more as high-fidelity transmission vehicles for the Global Financial Cycle, enabling retail agents to integrate directly into the U.S. dollar monetary system. |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | Ehrlinspiel, Jan |
| Subject: | Digital dollarization Stablecoin dynamics On-chain geolocation Currency substitution Wallet classification Panel data |
| Year: | 2026 |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Document type: | master thesis |
| Access type: | open access |
| Associated institution: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Language: | English |
| Origin: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Summary: | This working project tests the “Digital Dollarization” hypothesis using a novel panel of 394,000 geolocated Ethereum wallets across 23 countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, I document a robust null result: individual stablecoin flows are statistically insensitive to domestic inflation or policy rates. Instead, agents behave as “Retail Globalists”, responding significantly to U.S. monetary policy (βFed ≈ −35.7) and global risk aversion (βV IX ≈ 2.57). Consequently, stablecoins function less as domestic currency substitutes and more as high-fidelity transmission vehicles for the Global Financial Cycle, enabling retail agents to integrate directly into the U.S. dollar monetary system. |
|---|