Publicação
Macroeconomic determinants of on-chain stablecoin demand: evidence from a high-frequency micro-panel
| Resumo: | This working project tests the “Digital Dollarization” hypothesis using a novel panel of 394,000 geolocated Ethereum wallets across 23 countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, I document a robust null result: individual stablecoin flows are statistically insensitive to domestic inflation or policy rates. Instead, agents behave as “Retail Globalists”, responding significantly to U.S. monetary policy (βFed ≈ −35.7) and global risk aversion (βV IX ≈ 2.57). Consequently, stablecoins function less as domestic currency substitutes and more as high-fidelity transmission vehicles for the Global Financial Cycle, enabling retail agents to integrate directly into the U.S. dollar monetary system. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Ehrlinspiel, Jan |
| Assunto: | Digital dollarization Stablecoin dynamics On-chain geolocation Currency substitution Wallet classification Panel data |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Nova de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Institucional da UNL |
| Resumo: | This working project tests the “Digital Dollarization” hypothesis using a novel panel of 394,000 geolocated Ethereum wallets across 23 countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, I document a robust null result: individual stablecoin flows are statistically insensitive to domestic inflation or policy rates. Instead, agents behave as “Retail Globalists”, responding significantly to U.S. monetary policy (βFed ≈ −35.7) and global risk aversion (βV IX ≈ 2.57). Consequently, stablecoins function less as domestic currency substitutes and more as high-fidelity transmission vehicles for the Global Financial Cycle, enabling retail agents to integrate directly into the U.S. dollar monetary system. |
|---|